Ukraine and the "peace plan"

It looks like Ukraine is facing a very bad choice in the next week or two. Either accepting a humiliating peace deal or face the loss of US support at a time where it can ill-afford such loss.

It is clear to me that Ukraine is nowhere near being able to expel Russian forces from its territory. It can throw as many Flamingo missiles at oil refineries as it likes, but that is not going to make Russia collapse. A concerted campaign of sanctions and economic isolation would be more likely to do so, but like a game of Jenga, you cannot predict with certainty when the tower is going to collapse.

Accepting the deal would likely just be an armistice for a few years until Russia can reconstitute then attack again on some dubious pretext. But continuing to fight risks a Ukrainian collapse.

Europe is not going to commit actual ground troops to liberate Ukraine. It is too reliant on Russian gas.

There is a danger of pride overcoming common sense - but it might not be common sense. I wouldn't like to make this decision anymore than Zelenskyy.

Let's hope he makes the right one.

This is also Spinal Tap... (Review: 'Fringe' 1.18. "Midnight")

Just a lot more gory, even if all the drummers survived this one.

Remembrance 2025

We've all spilt a glass of water at some point in our lives, or dropped a mug that's broken. The actual act of the spillage may take a couple of seconds, but the clearing up can take sixty times as long as that. If not longer.

War is like this, except with blood and bombs. The impact of the actions of aggressors or those making a genuine mistake under pressure last far longer than the initial action itself. The negative consequences last for much longer.

I've been researching the history of my local area in the Second World War recently. I now know that an area of flats near my house was built on the site of houses destroyed by a V2 missile. I imagine that those living in that street would have remembered it for the rest of their lives.

Most of the people who did the actual fighting in the war have passed on - we are now left with those who lived through it as children. The damage to their childhoods through things they did not choose to start will affect their children, their children's children and so on.

The Second World War lasted six years. Its legacy will be with us for much longer. 

However, many gave their lives to stop the damaging legacy from being even worse and bringing an end to Nazism, whose plans for Europe were utterly horrific. Just the part they did do was the biggest crime in history and it is a pity that so many did escape justice - at least in this world. The right side won at the end of the day and those who claim it was not worth it are completely wrong.

May we act in ways that will prevent more death and destruction in the future.

We will remember them.

Blog updates

I'm continuing to work my way through Star Trek: The Animated Series - I may end up releasing the reviews for the first half of Season 1 when I get through that. Make things a bit shorter and quicker in posts there.

Also, a review of a Buffy the Vampire Slayer season 2 episode is planned. I have yet to decide which one for certain.

Strange Dreams are made of Liv (Review: 'Fringe' 1.17, "Bad Dreams")

Who am I to disagree? Well, I am going to a bit, anyway.

Also, has it really been four-and-a-half months since the last review. This contains spoilers for the episode.

Gaza ceasefire

I am not sure that the Gaza ceasefire will hold in the long-term unless there are major changes in the leadership on both sides. 

Hamas for its part seems nowhere near willing to actually disarm or properly recognise Israel - by which I mean direct negotiations rather than using the Qataris or Egyptians as middlemen. It is currently facing a major challenge to its authority in the bits of Gaza it controls by militias that are probably covertly backed by Israel.

Netanyahu has no willingness to support a Palestinian state and even the current opposition in the Knesset are opposed to it. They would only accept a demilitarised state at most, which might be too little for most Palestinians.

Also, Trump's 20-point plan is dependent on Palestinian Authority reform, which is by no means a given. Once Abbas goes, Pandora's box is very much open in that regard.

This is not peace - this is an armistice for a few years.

200 years of the railway

Today marks 200 years since the opening of the Stockton & Darlington Railway, the first modern railway. The impact of that line was truly world-changing for good - and also ill. It made global commerce truly possible - and also imperialism. It also allowed people greater mobility and sped up communication, making political organisation far easier.

Appropriately enough, I am writing this on a train, travelling on Brunel's Great Western Railway from Paddington to Reading.

While standing in the vestibule. With the catering not open because the train is full. A 5-car IET is no replacement for a HST in terms of capacity. 

Great British Railways is heading down the tracks; Greater Anglia transfers over on 12 October.

Whether that will actually improve services remains to be seen. One problem with public railways is that they tend to be rather dependent on the whim of government and its political interest.

This is not a full defence of privatisation; the British franchise version was far too fragmented. At least it gave variety in terms of paint jobs. Or rather vinyls.

Anyway, here's to another 200 years. Perhaps I will live to see railways on Mars. Dust on the line anyone?