06 November 2024

The return of Donald Trump

Well, he's back for another four years. Unless he drops dead first, which is possible. I want to wait for all the final numbers to come in, but my initial thought is that there is a danger of overcomplicating this election.

"It's the economy, stupid" goes a long way to explaining the results, frankly.

As for Trump, we're about to see how strongly the guardrails cope with his crazy ideas.

02 November 2024

US Presidential Election 2024 Prediction

We are nearing the end of an election campaign even nastier than the last one. Donald Trump and his Republicans have engaged in the sort of rhetoric that the Nazis used and they're increasingly not able to hide it.

Kamala Harris, thrust into the nomination after the Biden campaign collapsed, has done a remarkable job in the circumstances, although admittedly many are not entirely happy about her lack of a clear stance on Gaza. She might be clearer on that once election is secured.

The election looks very close, but one of course must remember a little thing called margin of error; a blowout in the swing states is entirely possible with a normal polling error.

The Trump campaign seems to be having some major issues with its ground game; they also seem to be setting the "information environment" (thank you Institute for the Study of War for that) to claim election fraud after any loss. The insult comic at the Madison Square Garden rally seems to have invoked real fury among Puerto Ricans.

Harris has an advantage in enthusiasm, particularly among women and older voters. The Democrats are seem to be at just the right level of confidence to avoid complacency.

So, here is how I think it is going to go:

Prediction Map

  • Harris wins the popular vote by two to three points.
  • Harris wins six of the seven swing states, coming close in North Carolina. 303 electoral votes will be three fewer than Joe Biden got in 2020.
  • With the rise of early voting on both sides, the 'red mirage' will be less prominent than 2020, but still there nonetheless.
  • The Democrats will take the House, the Republicans the Senate. This will mean more Congressional gridlock.
  • Trump will "declare victory" on Wednesday morning (UK time) and scream fraud later.
  • The National Guard are going to be needed at some point, sadly.
But of course, I could be wrong and it's going to be a long couple of days, I would say.

07 October 2024

One Year of War in the Middle East

Today marks one year since the October 7 attacks by Hamas on innocent Israelis that very much set the spark for a conflict that shows no signs of a quick resolution.

Both Hamas and Israel have bitten off very much more than they can easily chew here - so has Hezbollah. It is quite likely at this stage that Israel will eventually be able to defeat both of them, but at a very high human cost. Quite how the Gazan death toll has been so low is a mystery to me - we could easily have seen a quarter of the strip's population dead by this point.

Ultimately the peaceful resolution would be a two-state one, but that would need powerful moderates on both sides to be able to deliver it. There currently aren't sadly, so it looks like this conflict might go on for a while; any ceasefire would just be temporary.

And innocents on both sides will continue to suffer.

27 September 2024

Dame Maggie Smith 1934-2024

If she had just done Violet Crawley and Professor McGonagall, she would have worth a glowing obituary. But that was just a small section of a very long acting career.

She was one of the greatest actresses of the last century. Her list of accolades is massive, with the DBE coming even before she had done Harry Potter. Few could do a waspish put-down like her - she stole every scene she was in on Downton Abbey.

She will be greatly missed. RIP.

16 September 2024

Wigs, Frocks and Glocks - rewatching 'Alias'

This post contains a fair amount of British self-deprecation. I'm surprised, in all the time I've had this blog, I've never done a post on this show.

09 September 2024

James Earl Jones 1931-2024

One of the greatest voice actors of all time has died.

Darth Vader was simply an iconic role that any actor would be happy to have on his obituary, but he did so much more than that over his very long career. His legacy will last for centuries.

Rest in Peace.

02 September 2024

It's a D from me (Review: 'Star Trek' 3.16, "The Mark of Gideon")

Star Trek can frequently be a case of "great idea, shame about the execution" and this episode is clearly a case, clearly a cheapie to pad out the episode order.

Because the execution is very bad.