Liz Truss

This woman is likely to be the next PM, something that should be confirmed tomorrow. She's got a very tough inbox to deal with and I'm not exactly sure she's going to be up to the job based on her past record, which hasn't filled me with confidence.

We shall see.

Vote Remain

This long, unpleasant campaign finally comes to an end on Thursday and by breakfast on Friday, we will know whether Great Britain has chosen to remain in the European Union.

I would like us to stay in and will vote as such when I cast my ballot on Thursday.

Is the EU perfect? Most certainly not; it has made many mistakes. That whole "moving to Strasbourg thing" for examples.

But those mistakes are far outweighed by its practical benefits. The right to live and work freely in any member state actually benefits more British people in the rest of the EU than other EU nationals here. It makes many collaborative projects, especially media ones, much easier to do. Game of Thrones would be a lot harder to make if you had to apply for work permits for all of the cast and crew, who hail from many nations.

Also, the existence of the EU has been a force for democracy in other parts of Europe - nations have had to crack down on corruption and improve human rights to get in.

Vote Leave haven't been clear about their alternative and there is no guarantee that the organisation they dislike so much will agree to their proposals. 'Control our borders' would basically mean making it harder for our business to get skilled labour from anywhere bar the UK as all foreigners would need work permits, not just non-EU ones. It would also make it harder for those here who wish to work and study abroad.

They say that the rest of the EU ignores us; maybe it's because we haven't tried hard enough to work with others to improve things.

I am a Briton, but I am also a European; I believe in working together to solve our common problems, not pulling up the drawbridge.

Vote Remain.

Syriza takes power in Greece

For the first time in a good number of years, we have a far-left government in the EU. Syriza capitalised on hostility against the austerity imposed on Greece; but the question is now how well they (and their very unlikely coalition partners) do in office.

If they succeed, other left-wing parties may head down the same track. If not, it will be a big blow for everyone who is unhappy about the impacts these bailouts have had.

US Mid-terms 2014

So the Republicans have won control of both Houses of Congress in the mid-term elections. Here wer go for yet another two years with no proper budget in the US... perhaps we'll even have another shutdown.

While the Republicans have been highly obstructive, Obama has been a disappointment to say the least. His only achievement of note? Obamacare and that's not all it's cracked up to be (there has been an increase in premiums for many). The Russians have Crimea, the Arab Spring has produced Islamic State and firearm ownership is on the increase.

Well at least it's a good time to make cannabis; more states are legalising it following ballots yesterday.

Local and European elections 2014

The strong UKIP showing in the local elections and their triumph in the EU elections should be a wake-up call to all the other parties; we need to take this party very seriously and actively work to expose their damaging world view and policies. While they are impacting the Tory vote more than the Labour one, it is still hurting us - UKIP were basically responsible for Labour only ending up with one councillor in Havering.

Labour's performance in the locals was good, but could have been better; while we're still on course for at least largest party, we need to make more effort at connecting with people. It's not going to be easy, as we're still deeply associated with the last recession and "failures" on immigration, but it needs to be done.

It's not time to panic, but we should not be complacent.

Greece exit poll

Based on the exit polls and assuming that New Democracy comes first, it should be able to form a coalition with PASOK with just an overall majority.

Assuming it comes first.

France and Greece

The election results in France, where Socialist François Hollande won on an anti-austerity platform against unpopular incumbent Nicholas Sarkozy and in Greece, where a radical left coalition came second and the current grand coalition can't form a majority, potentially leading to further elections.

Some on the right are saying that the citizenry in Europe are deluded as to the extent of the debt situation. I personally think they just see that all this austerity is doing is giving tax cuts to the rich to create growth (which it isn't doing as most consumers are ordinary people) while the poor are thrown out of work and left to fend for themselves.

Mitt Romney

So, Mitt Romney is the de facto Republican nominee. Now we get to see if he gets more or less a percentage of the popular vote than John McCain did last time. I get a feeling that it'll be less... The more I read about this guy, the less I like him.

(Incidentally, I think Obama will get less than 2008 - but will still win. A noticeable third party guy may turn up and take a good number of votes - not enough to pick up any Electoral College Votes, though)

"Tighter than a new tube sock on a cow" - the Iowa caucuses

I don't know which American commentator actually said that, but if it's not Dan Rather, it's clearly his successor.

With just 8 votes in it, Romney's squeak win doesn't help him all that much. I still think he'll get the nomination (and lose in the general to Obama) but Rick Santorum has made an impressive comeback.

I'm voting No tomorrow.

Tomorrow, we vote on whether to change the voting system for Westminster elections from First-Past-The-Post to the Alternative Vote system.

I will be voting No. I do not want a system that will make the Liberal Democrats, a party that I believe abandoned their principles for Cabinet seats, the deciding force in any future elections. I would only favour a more proportional system if there was a fourth major party (i.e. two party blocs) and even then that would not be AV, but rather AMS.

This is not to say that I welcome or agree with the tone of the NO campaign by any means. Their conduct has appalled me.

RTE: The Frontline Leader's Debate

This is quite possibly the first post I've written here about politics in the Republic of Ireland. My label system must be a Unionist, it kept correcting the Ireland label to "Northern Ireland" (or shouldn't that have been "Ulster").

Being a bit of an elections fan (I can still remember the moment I realised Bush had won the 2004 US election based on the Latino vote in the exit polls), I saw that BBC Parliament was showing Monday's Irish election debate yesterday and decided to record it.

I don't know a tremendous amount about Irish politics, but I've picked up bits here and there. I can't honestly remember the precise difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, but there is one.

Ireland uses the Single Transferable Vote system for elections to the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of their bicameral legislature. This resulted in five parties being present at the debate rather than the three that turned up in the UK ones.

This debate was under the aegis of The Frontline, a weekly politics programme on Ireland's main public broadcaster, Raidió Teilifís Éireann (RTE). There was another debate yesterday, conducted in Gaelic on TG4 with only three paries, which appears to have got rave reviews. Enda Kenny, the Fine Gael leader, did not turn up to the TV3 debate, also in English (intended to be three-way) due to scheduling problems.

Let's get back to the RTE debate. The debate was basically "an audience member asks a question", then the five leaders had a discussion around it and kept interrupting each other. Pat Kenny was the host and frankly didn't do a brilliant job; he really should have reined the people in.

Our nearest neighbours, Ireland is both very similar and very different to our one. They've got a deficit problem and worries about healthcare. However, Ireland's a republic that emerged via a bloody war of independence and a civil war. It is a user of the euro and has a tiny military. There is also the massive issue of the recent IMF/EU bailout...

The most interesting issue that where we have concerns with people coming in; the Irish (who have a literally massive diaspora) have concerns about people leaving.

So without further ado, I shall give my impressions of the five leaders (from left to right on the screen):

John Gormley (Green)

The Greens were part of the government until recently before pulling out. Gormley demonstrates the very large difference between Green parties that are (or have been) in government and those are not. He was quiet, subdued and not exactly advocating a massive change to the economy. Otherwise, he was unimpressive.

Eamon Gilmore (Labour)

Based on the current polls, Labour are likely to be the junior partners in the new government with Fine Gael. Gilmore was a very muscular, thumping socialist of the old school; calling for a renegotiation of the bailout and wanting to put lots of money into creating jobs. Good, particularly for a guy who has become much more left-wing economically recently, but not brilliant.

Enda Kenny (Fine Gael)

The likely next Taoiseach (that's Prime Minister), Kenny is the leader of the Christian Democratic party Fine Gael ("Tribe of the Irish"). Kenny was strong and assured, advocating a private sector-led recovery (I hope that works - it's not here at the moment) and probably the best person there.

Micheal Martin (Fianna Fáil)

It's pronounced "me-haw", not "my-kal" (Irish names are different like that). As the successor to Brian Cowen as leader of the conservative Fianna Fáil (usually rendered in English "Soldiers of Destiny"), the outgoing PM, Martin is on a hiding to nothing. He wasn't very good at this. He's a bit like Gordon Brown in that regard.

Gerry Adams (Sinn Fein)

Ah, Gerry Adams... I'm familiar with him already through his involvement in NI. Leader of a very socialist party most well known for wanting a unified Ireland, Adams started off convincing then just went bizarre. Wanting to tell the IMF where to get off and getting accused by everyone of his sums not adding up, Adams managed to invoke the Irish Proclamation of Independence in a discussion on healthcare and also the "patriot dead" (those were died in the independence struggle). This might sound a little better in Ireland (the original IRA were socialists), but it sounded odd to me.

No-one wants to form a coalition with this guy and I'm not surprised.

Summary

Not a perfect debate, but a very interesting illumination into a land so similar and yet so different to ours.

I plan to watch the results if I can.

Votes for prisoners

BBC News story.

I completely oppose the idea of giving any prisoners the vote. If you are sent to prison, you should not be able to vote to get out.

I'm not entirely sure that this vote is a good idea though; it could have serious repercussions for the devolved body elections - and the AV referendum.


I don't like the idea of this, but if it was a choice between prisoners voting and pulling out of the European Convention of Human Rights altogether, I'd have to go for the former.

Tea. Republican. Black. There is a deficit on after all - Ten things we've learnt from the mid-terms

1. Pulchritude is not in itself an election winner. Especially if you dabbled in witchcraft.
2. Do not race-bait in Nevada.
3. Harry Reid is a political Time Lord.
4. Sarah Palin is not very good at getting people elected.
5. Just because you can make fake wrestling does not mean you can make real votes.
6. Even robo-polls can go wrong.
7. Sometimes it's even worse than you expect.
8. I'm no prediction master (but that doesn't mean I'll stop trying).
9. Personal votes are tricky things.
10. Californians aren't hippies.

Mid-term elections: final prediction

Republicans gain 8 seats.

I'll find out if I'm right in 48 hours. Or longer if a race or two ends up in court.

US mid-terms prediction

Here we go:

Senate
6 GOP gains, including Nevada. Murkowski wins narrowly in Alaska. Democrats retain control narrowly.

House
45 Republican pick-ups; enough for narrow control of the lower chamber.

Ed and Ken

I didn't vote for the two winners of the Labour leadership and mayoral candidacy. I have strong concerns over both of them.

That said, they are infinitely better than David Cameron and Boris Johnson. I wish them every success. I will judge them on results.

Hopefully the infighting will end; but the result in the leadership contest was too close for that.

We need to focus on the more important issue now. Getting the Coalition out of office.

Australian elections

Well, this is a bit of a situation; both parties need the support of independents to be able to form a government; independents who might not all go the same way on any issue.

This makes May's election here look simple...

Labour leadership contest

Think I'll be voting for Ed Balls; not too keen on the others.

It seems that all the candidates want to move us to the left. Considering the reasons why we lost, that's not the world's best idea...

Man insults woman when he thinks no-one is listening

It's fair to say that Gordon Brown's off-mic comment today was a gaffe of the first order.

It's worth pointing out, though, that few people haven't done that sort of thing at some point. They're not just politicians.

Well, there goes my prediction model...

I've been doing a spreadsheet predicting the results of every seat in the upcoming election. The basic model assumed a swing from Labour to the Tories of about 6%, bigger in the marginals.

Looks like I might have to rip up my prediction if the polls held.

Clegg won that debate on Thursday. Cameron came second and Brown third, but neither did too badly. The thing is, ten million people at least have now had an exposure to Clegg they wouldn't otherwise have had.

The large boost to the Lib Dems in the polls is going to put a lot of attention on them now- especially from the more right-wing tabloids who want a Tory government.

However, I think at least some of this increase in support, possibly half, will hold.

It's going to be a very interesting May.