Analysis of a surprise victory - General Election 2015 analysis

I have to admit I was very surprised when the exit poll put the Tories just shy of a majority... and rather unhappy when they actually won one.

Looking back at it, however, their victory was pretty obvious. Thus follows a quick rundown of what I feel are the key factors in their victory.

This poll comes in very handy for looking in more depth.

Why the Conservatives won

1. The economy: Unemployment is falling, wages are catching up with prices. Many people are expecting the economic recovery, slow as it is, to reach them. When I have to answer the question "Am I better off than I am five years ago?" with a "yes", it's clear that the circumstances for a change of government aren't reached.
2. Avoidance of major scandals: "Plebgate" was relatively small fry, phone-hacking certainly didn't impact the PM directly and the expenses issue was dealt with in the last Parliament.
3. Solid media support. Nearly all of the papers supported the Conservatives and constantly ran stories against Labour; I've seen one study that it was even more negative than 1992.
4. The over-55 vote. The Tories still have very strong support (almost 50% in fact) among this age group. Bigger concern for the future is what happens when the post-war baby boomers pass away.
5. The SNP. Despite not standing in any non-Scottish seat, fear of having the SNP control a Labour government influenced many floating voters to back the Tories.
6. David Cameron has been a competent Prime Minister and only made one major gaffe in the whole campaign on food banks.

Why Labour lost

1. The economy: Labour never held a lead on this matter and wasn't trusted by the electorate (fairly or not) after the recession on the matter. The next leader will need to address this in a big way without isolating the core vote in the process.
2. The Green Party: Took away a good deal of the left-wing vote - enough in some of the key marginals to make the difference between victory and defeat. Something important for campaigning next time is to say "Vote Green, get Tory".
3. It wasn't left wing enough for Scotland... and its organisation there in the last few years has been abysmal.
4. It was too left wing for Middle England: the party was not trusted on the EU (we should have backed a referendum) and immigration. There is also a potential white working class issue in the North that needs to be addressed. If you add up "right-wing" versus "left-wing", the former got 50.5% of the UK-wide vote.
5. Ed Miliband. While he won the 'short campaign', he was never preferred by many to David Cameron, being seen as awkward and un-Prime Ministerial. Mind you, none of the other 2010 leadership contestants would have faired too much better - David Miliband was even more associated with the Blair government for example. The "Ed stone" was a stupid mistake, but one of few in the last stages.

UKIP, the Lib Dems etc.

1. The electoral system basically limited UKIP to one seat; had we had PR, they'd have probably got more votes. As such some of their support probably voted Tory to keep Labour out. Regardless of referendum result, the EU will be a far smaller issue next time - I think.
2. The SNP's support surged after the referendum and they were able to hold onto it; in fact increase it. This may be a high-water mark for them; it may not.
3. The Lib Dems paid a heavy price for not blocking the Tories enough while in government - and the tuition fees move killed them among students. I dread to think what the next lot of council elections will be like for them. The Alliance Party in Northern Ireland may have lost by association, but I can't be sure of that.
4. Plaid Cymru had an unimpressive campaign and stayed where they were.
5. Interesting to see the revival of the Ulster Unionists; now back to two seats. Possible resurgence of moderate unionism?

Further thoughts

1. 37% and a majority of essentially 15 aren't huge wins; the Tories may have a tough time with rebels.
2. Labour doesn't need to win an overall majority next time; it just needs largest party, something it can do with only a 50 seat gain.
3. Labour's got a better membership base now and we can work with that.
4. The economy may crash before 2020 but it may not. We can't rely on it.
5. We've got to court the Murdoch press, as unpleasant as that will be. 

Election results 2015

It's fair to say that I'm very disappointed in the results of the election. I never thought I'd see the Conservatives do as well as they did, with an overall majority, albeit a small one, now projected.

Ed Miliband should step down and we need to have a long look at what went wrong. We did run a very good campaign, but it clearly wasn't good enough. Were we too left wing? Were we not left wing enough? Were we both? Was it the economy what swung it? Something that needs some serious focus grouping. We are facing serious challenges to our support from both the Greens and UKIP in England; I don't need to mention the SNP.

Small consolations were Galloway losing in Bradford West, Labour actually making a small gain on vote share from 2010 and our London performance. Also, the completely unexpected near total wipe-out of the Lib Dems.

David Cameron is in for possibly the next five years; it's entirely possible that he might get ousted before then, but don't count on it.

Instead, the left needs to focus on winning councils in 2016 (including London's Mayoralty) and use all our legal influence to mitigate the damage Tory policies will do to the disadvantaged in this country.

I'll do a fuller analysis in a couple of weeks once the dust has settled.

General Election 2015 - Final call

• Conservatives narrowly win popular vote, but don't exceed 35% or 290 seats.
• Labour just get most seats.
• Lib Dems end up under 25 seats, but Nick Clegg hangs on.
• SNP win over 50 seats in Scotland, but don't get a clean sweep.
• Farage loses narrowly in Thanet South.
• No easily viable government emerges.
• We have another election by this time next year.

One week to go

The polls have been all over the map on this one. Anyone who claims to know for certain how this will turn out is a person with far too high a level of self-confidence.

I severely doubt the Tories will get a majority, but largest party at least in terms of national vote is a distinct possibility. In which case, any Labour government is going to have a hard time gaining popular legitimacy.

And this sort of thing would still happen under PR...

Two weeks to go

The election is getting closer - in fact postal votes are already being filled in. It's not been a massively exciting campaign, but there have certainly been some moments.

We had the food bank statistics released today - over a million people had to go to these (which provide you with three days' supply) in the last year. 100,000 would be far too many. 1 million is just obscene for one of the world's richest countries.

David Cameron should go and visit one to see the real impact of his policies on the poor in this country. But he won't. Just like he wouldn't have a face to face debate with Ed Miliband.

Three weeks to go

It's just over three weeks until polling day and it's clear that it's going to be close. I think Labour just has the lead at present, but it's still within the margin of error and this is an election where the polling could go badly wrong if the pollsters have their models incorrect.

I can't say I'm impressed with the Lib Dems suddenly finding a conscience after five years in this awful Coalition; I want them back on the opposition benches where they belong,

I also would be very happy if Farage loses Thanet South.

The campaign begins, fully

So, Parliament has sat for its final session ahead of the dissolution on Monday, after which there will be no MPs, only candidates vying for re-election.

A lot is going to be riding on Ed Miliband's shoulders in the next few weeks, especially in his television appearances. He has to convince the undecided and wavering voters that he is not the caricature that the right-wing press portray him as. If he does that, he will go a long way to winning this election.

For there is more to 'winning' than just getting most seats; Labour must win the popular vote to have any chance of legitimacy in a minority government. With the polling averages showing things neck and neck between the two biggest parties, every vote for Labour will matter.

TV Debates

They're dominating the news again.

I don't think that the DUP really have much of an argument to take part in the debates - they're a very small party unlikely to even win a majority of seats in Northern Ireland. Inviting them means that you have to invite the other four parties in NI with seats.

Personally, if we're going to have the debates, let's limit it to those polling more than 5% nationally - Labour, the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, UKIP and the Greens.

Also I think Cameron is running scared - every incumbent PM except for Brown has frustrated debates as they'd had too much to lose.

Election prediction for May

I'm currently working on a seat by seat prediction, but this is how I think things will broadly go:

Labour will get around 33-34% of the vote and end up short of a majority by about 20; it will have to do some form of deal with the SNP and/or Lib Dems if it wants to get anything done.

Sadly UKIP are now just too strong - and I doubt there is another leader of Blair quality in the party at least this side of 2025.