The end of the Islamic regime in Iran?

It appears for the second time this year that the United States has managed to remove a foreign leader they didn't like from power, with  Ayatollah Khamenei possibly killed in the large-scale US and Israeli attack on Iran.

This was an attack of choice with no Congressional backing, let alone one from the United Nations. The Trump administration is riding roughshod over international law, the US Constitution and common decency.

But not many will be mourning the death of Ali Khamenei, leader of one of the most oppressive regimes in the world, a literal inspiration for Gilead from The Handmaid's Tale. That is probably why there will be no real consequences for the US action here - the EU itself believed Iran was a threat in multiple ways.

It has not been a good century for those opposed to the United States. Bin Laden is lying at the bottom of the ocean. Saddam Hussein died the death of a common criminal. Gadaffi was killed by his own people. Maduro is in a prison cell. Assad is in exile.

But US action has unleashed horrific forces in many of the countries it has targeted. Improvements have occurred only after a massive wave of chaos and not always then. Refugees coming from Libya are probably a major cause of the rise of the far-right in Europe.

So, Iran has become the next 'victim' - and one can only pray a better government emerges there.

One Year of War in the Middle East

Today marks one year since the October 7 attacks by Hamas on innocent Israelis that very much set the spark for a conflict that shows no signs of a quick resolution.

Both Hamas and Israel have bitten off very much more than they can easily chew here - so has Hezbollah. It is quite likely at this stage that Israel will eventually be able to defeat both of them, but at a very high human cost. Quite how the Gazan death toll has been so low is a mystery to me - we could easily have seen a quarter of the strip's population dead by this point.

Ultimately the peaceful resolution would be a two-state one, but that would need powerful moderates on both sides to be able to deliver it. There currently aren't sadly, so it looks like this conflict might go on for a while; any ceasefire would just be temporary.

And innocents on both sides will continue to suffer.

Ukraine #3: The suffering of civilians

Russia is engaging in medieval style siege tactics around Mariupol and other cities, trying to pulverise the places into surrendering. If they want to control Ukraine, taking it over via massive bloodshed is not going to work very well. You'll have a lot of deep resentment against an occupying force as countless examples demonstrate throughout history.

Putin might be thinking that he can make Ukraine surrender if the civilian death toll is that bad, but currently they show no sign of doing that. It's also a rare thing to have happen. Russia had to wreck Grozny and Aleppo.

We could still have a lot more bloodshed to come, sadly.

Ukraine #2: The Paper Tiger, or rather Bear

We used to fear the Russian military. The events of the past two weeks have radically changed opinions. It appears they have massive issues with logistics, communications security and morale. The fact that Su-34s, the most modern strike aircraft in their inventory, are being shot down, and they haven't gotten control of the air yet is massively telling.

Meanwhile, the sanctions seem to be causing real pain as company after company is terminating their operations and the ruble is plummeting in value.

Putin seems either completely unhinged or doing a very good impression of it. We cannot rule out a palace coup at this stage. We also can't rule out the use of nuclear weapons, but that would require a lot of other people to be crazy.

But until he's gone, a lot of people are going to suffer from his delusional folly.

Ukraine

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a blatant act of aggression without justification. Strong sanctions are needed, along with material help to the people of Ukraine.

The fact that Russia's attack is not going as well as they clearly hoped is a good thing.

But many people will still suffer and I encourage you to donate to charities that are helping those caught up in a war not of their marking.

Слава Україні!

Demjanjuk convicted of aiding 28,000 murders at Sobibor

In news that I am sure will please many, John Demjanjuk has been convicted in a German court.

Justice has at last caught up with this man.

Many others cheated earthly justice by dying first. They, though, will one day face the infinite justice of God.

Update: He has now been freed, reportedly pending an appeal.