The Return of Donald Trump

I could go a full analysis of all the various factors that led to Trump's narrow win in November, which shouldn't really have been the surprise that it was.

However, it's probably best to keep things fairly brief as others will have done far more than this. There are two main reasons for Harris losing.

Firstly, she was basically an unpopular incumbent in an economy many felt was performing poorly and so they voted for a change of government. Something happening in a good many countries at the moment. It is quite possible that if Trump mucks up the economy with his tariffs etc. that the Democrats will sweep back in come 2028.

Secondly, the left in general has become quite seriously out of touch with ordinary voters. Some frankly view anyone who would vote for Trump as beneath contempt, deserving of the pain that is about to come their way. They will not even associate with them socially, which means that they are rather unlikely to convert them or even present them with an alternative to the right-wing distortions that Elon Musk is happily amplifying right now. Also, they don't really look like "working class" people anymore. Who is the most working-class person in the government right now? Probably Angela Rayner.

Trumpism may collapse from its own internal contradictions, but the left needs to get its act together. It is no longer guaranteed the Latino vote or the working class vote; the black vote is better for them, but that could go with the right Republican candidate.

There is a decent chance, as two other politicians observed the other day - and it's happened in other countries with Thatcher and Merkel - that the first Madame President will be of the elephant persuasion rather than the donkey.

US Presidential Election 2024 Prediction

We are nearing the end of an election campaign even nastier than the last one. Donald Trump and his Republicans have engaged in the sort of rhetoric that the Nazis used and they're increasingly not able to hide it.

Kamala Harris, thrust into the nomination after the Biden campaign collapsed, has done a remarkable job in the circumstances, although admittedly many are not entirely happy about her lack of a clear stance on Gaza. She might be clearer on that once election is secured.

The election looks very close, but one of course must remember a little thing called margin of error; a blowout in the swing states is entirely possible with a normal polling error.

The Trump campaign seems to be having some major issues with its ground game; they also seem to be setting the "information environment" (thank you Institute for the Study of War for that) to claim election fraud after any loss. The insult comic at the Madison Square Garden rally seems to have invoked real fury among Puerto Ricans.

Harris has an advantage in enthusiasm, particularly among women and older voters. The Democrats are seem to be at just the right level of confidence to avoid complacency.

So, here is how I think it is going to go:

Prediction Map

• Harris wins the popular vote by two to three points.
• Harris wins six of the seven swing states, coming close in North Carolina. 303 electoral votes will be three fewer than Joe Biden got in 2020.
• With the rise of early voting on both sides, the 'red mirage' will be less prominent than 2020, but still there nonetheless.
• The Democrats will take the House, the Republicans the Senate. This will mean more Congressional gridlock.
• Trump will "declare victory" on Wednesday morning (UK time) and scream fraud later.
• The National Guard are going to be needed at some point, sadly.

But of course, I could be wrong and it's going to be a long couple of days, I would say.

Joe Biden

It's starting to look increasingly like Joe Biden will have to pull out of his re-election bid, with reports that Barack Obama, very much the most respected man in the Democratic Party, is privately expressing his doubts over Biden's ability to defeat Donald Trump.

Biden's age is starting to catch up with him. His memory looks like it is beginning to go and he's having problems even reading stuff from an autocue now. His debate performance was by all accounts disastrous; Trump was an open goal and he kicked the ball into the stands. He's been pretty sheltered from direct public scrutiny in terms of exposure to the press.

At the moment, Trump does not have an insurmountable polling lead; he is still inside the margin of error. But the Democrats need to gain in the polls and Biden staying on the ticket will no longer help that, due to the clear questions being raised about his ability to do another four years.

Personally, I have real concerns about his ability to even live another four years if he got re-elected. He's been much better than Trump, but it's clear that he now needs to gracefully retire.