Afghanistan #3

So much for by next Saturday. It's over, the Taliban have taken over.

This is the biggest humiliation for the United States since the fall of Saigon in 1975, except the helicopter has two rotors this time. 

But crowing about it won't do any good. We need to be prepared for whatever happens next, especially if the place becomes a terrorist base again.

Afghanistan #2

Many analyses from even a few days ago are looking old; it is entirely possible that the Taliban could be in the centre of Kabul by next Saturday now. It depends on whether Ghani can get his forces in any form of order or there is some kind of brokered ceasefire where he stands down.

A full assault is likely to be a bloodbath on all sides. We're likely to end up with millions of refugees in any event.

Does anyone know any good charities I can donate to here?

Afghanistan

The situation for the Kabul government is not, to put it simply, going very well. The loss of nine provincial capitals in a week to the Taliban with little or no fighting in some cases is creating a strong air of crisis as the Americans end their 20-year, $2 trillion operation in the country.

It is possible that Kabul will fall - it is also quite possible that it will not and if a fight is put up there, taking a city of 4 million people would be beyond the Taliban's capability.

What is clear that the current government has failed to gain widespread legitimacy among many of its people and as a result, much of the country will now be under a regime that thinks music is sinful. Ultimately, that is on the Afghan so-called leadership themselves. Sadly, we have not seen the last of that country's troubles.

Exit Afghanistan

The British military operation in Afghanistan has come to an end after 13 years. Just come to an end; not with a victory nor with us being driven out.

The impact of our (and ISAF's) involvement here is mixed. It has caused considerable disruption to Islamist activities; while we may well see many more Lee Rigbys, I do not think we will see another 9/11. Al-Qaeda itself is a mere shadow of what it was and bin Laden is dead. Afghanistan cannot be used as a safe haven for terrorists any more and I doubt it will ever be. It's certainly a lot freer than it was and girls now can go to school.

However, the Taliban are still around, Afghanistan is still a dangerous place (although not as dangerous as Iraq or Syria) and corruption is endemic. Our troops lacked the support and equipment they needed, lives were lost as a result.

We did good, but we could have done better.