17 October 2025

Gaza ceasefire

I am not sure that the Gaza ceasefire will hold in the long-term unless there are major changes in the leadership on both sides. 

Hamas for its part seems nowhere near willing to actually disarm or properly recognise Israel - by which I mean direct negotiations rather than using the Qataris or Egyptians as middlemen. It is currently facing a major challenge to its authority in the bits of Gaza it controls by militias that are probably covertly backed by Israel.

Netanyahu has no willingness to support a Palestinian state and even the current opposition in the Knesset are opposed to it. They would only accept a demilitarised state at most, which might be too little for most Palestinians.

Also, Trump's 20-point plan is dependent on Palestinian Authority reform, which is by no means a given. Once Abbas goes, Pandora's box is very much open in that regard.

This is not peace - this is an armistice for a few years.

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