OK, we are now two days away from the election and here are my predictions:
- Labour will get a majority of between 200 to 225 seats, but on a vote share noticeably lower than Blair's 1997 victory. Maybe 38%.
- The Conservatives will stay above the psychologically important 100 seat level, but not by a massive amount. A bunch of Cabinet minsters will lose their seats and we may well have another Portillo Moment.
- The Lib Dems will get between 60 and 70 seats.
- The SNP will no longer be the majority party among Scottish MPs.
- Reform will get 5 to 7 MPs, one of them being Nigel Farage.
- Jeremy Corbyn will not retain his seat as an independent.
- The Greens will have at least two MPs.
- Some special arrangements are going to be needed for "pairing" in the Commons due to the sheer number of Labour MPs.
- There will no longer be a Department of Levelling Up. That brand will be consigned to history.
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