Joe Biden

It's starting to look increasingly like Joe Biden will have to pull out of his re-election bid, with reports that Barack Obama, very much the most respected man in the Democratic Party, is privately expressing his doubts over Biden's ability to defeat Donald Trump.

Biden's age is starting to catch up with him. His memory looks like it is beginning to go and he's having problems even reading stuff from an autocue now. His debate performance was by all accounts disastrous; Trump was an open goal and he kicked the ball into the stands. He's been pretty sheltered from direct public scrutiny in terms of exposure to the press.

At the moment, Trump does not have an insurmountable polling lead; he is still inside the margin of error. But the Democrats need to gain in the polls and Biden staying on the ticket will no longer help that, due to the clear questions being raised about his ability to do another four years.

Personally, I have real concerns about his ability to even live another four years if he got re-elected. He's been much better than Trump, but it's clear that he now needs to gracefully retire.

Live-Action LucasArts (Review: 'Phantom Peak: Starlit Summer')

Over the last few years, only partly interrupted by the pandemic, there has been something of a major increase in what is called immersive theatre. Theatrical productions where you are a direct participant in the events and can, in a way, influence them. The pioneers in this world are Punchdrunk, a British theatre company, while Secret Cinema have also made a name for themselves.

So, anyway, I've been to a couple of these experiences. The live-action Crystal Maze Experience that I managed to get my team at work to do as an away day went down very well, even if I ended up getting "volunteered" as Team Captain. The Stranger Things Experience in 2022 also proved to be a lot of fun, even if the ice-cream was more expensive than Karen Wheeler's perms...

On Saturday, I went to Phantom Peak, located in the Canada Water neighbourhood of SE London. I mainly know this place as somewhere I change trains when I have to go somewhere else in South London, so I'd not really seen it above the surface. It's definitely a pretty nice neighbourhood.

I feel I should probably get to the point or Jonas is not going to be impressed.

General Election: Post 3 - The landslide on 34% of the vote

We still have one seat left to declare, but that's not going to make much of a difference. Anyway, here are my thoughts in no particular order:

• My prediction for Labour's majority and vote share was too high; so was that of many others. On a uniform national swing, we would have been looking at a hung parliament.
• I suspect many Tories will be glad to have got 121 seats, but it was still a whooping for the ages. Close to half their vote and over two-thirds of their seats gone. 15 Cabinet Ministers ousted as well, but our Portillo moment has to be Liz Truss losing her seat and leaving her count without a concession speech. Which I was asleep for...
• The Lib Dems actually exceeded my prediction by at least one seat. 71 seats is their best result ever, but their vote share was well below the 22.0% they got in 2005 under Charles Kennedy. Lot of tactical voting there.
• The SNP are likely at 10 seats at best; a massive collapse which probably puts independence on the backburner for at least the rest of the decade.
• Reform got 5 seats, in range of my prediction, along with a vote share that outdid the Lib Dems. Those sort of parties generally do much better under PR as they tend to have their votes widely spread out. A lot of second places though and they helped Labour over the line in many seats by the amount they took off the Tories.
• Corbyn retained his seat against expectations. There were also four more independents who won over Gaza and another won in North Down over opposition to the NI Protocol. The former and Corbyn might want to team up to form their own group, because I believe it would get them short money.
• George Galloway lost his seat and showed even less class than Liz Truss by not even going to the count.
• Four MPs for the Greens; they concentrated their resources on winnable seats.
• Levelling Up remains a thing, sadly. Changing the signs would be expensive.
• Sir Keir is setting expectations early, but he will need to deliver in a reasonable time. The 2025 local elections, which will see protest votes, will be a big challenge.
• The overall future for the Tories really depends on their next leader. They lost a lot of votes over their immigration failures, but someone like Kemi Badenoch will have problems with people who went for Labour or the Lib Dems.

General Election 2024: Post 2 - Prediction

OK, we are now two days away from the election and here are my predictions:

• Labour will get a majority of between 200 to 225 seats, but on a vote share noticeably lower than Blair's 1997 victory. Maybe 38%.
• The Conservatives will stay above the psychologically important 100 seat level, but not by a massive amount. A bunch of Cabinet minsters will lose their seats and we may well have another Portillo Moment.
• The Lib Dems will get between 60 and 70 seats.
• The SNP will no longer be the majority party among Scottish MPs.
• Reform will get 5 to 7 MPs, one of them being Nigel Farage.
• Jeremy Corbyn will not retain his seat as an independent.
• The Greens will have at least two MPs.
• Some special arrangements are going to be needed for "pairing" in the Commons due to the sheer number of Labour MPs.
• There will no longer be a Department of Levelling Up. That brand will be consigned to history.