01 November 2020

US Election Prediction for 2020

 OK, here's my prediction for Tuesday. I may be wrong on some or all of these.

  • Biden will win the popular vote by 5 to 10 percentage points, probably on the higher end of that range.
  • It will be clear, but not 100% confirmed, who has won on the night.
  • Biden will get 351 Electoral Votes, picking up Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (My full predictions can be found here)
  • He will just miss out on Ohio and Texas. 
  • Turnout will be at its highest since universal suffrage.
  • The Democrats will win both Houses of Congress.
  • Trump will privately concede, but publicly not do so.
  • Expect multiple criminal investigations into Trump as soon as he leaves office.
  • A lot of Republicans will not take this lying down and the next four years could be pretty tense.

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