International Day of Prayer For Peace

Today is the International Day of Prayer for Peace, so I thought I'd weigh in on a particular area area that particularly needs some peace right now- the Middle East.

Israel is getting a new Prime Minister, who may change things there. I hope.

I think there are two things that needs to happen-

• The Israelis need to alter their counter-terrorism strategy radically so that they do not create more terrorists than the ones they remove.
• The Palestinians need to show willingness to accept Israel's existence (Hamas) and make serious effort at stopping this terrorism.

With regards to the former, the Palestinians may well be, in some regards, the victims, but that does not excuse their actions or lack thereof on some issues.

Israel also should not be using past suffering as an excuse for its own actions. While they are certainly entitled to a state, they still have to keep to the rules of civilised politics.

I have some concerns over the viability of a Palestinian state- especially one cut in twain by Israel. Like Weimar Germany, this tends not to work too well. Perhaps someone ought to build an oil pipeline to the West Bank.

This has lasted 60 years. Let's ensure it doesn't last 60 more. People are going to need to compromise.

Thoughts are welcome.

Thoughts on the US election

With Labor Day on Monday, the US Presidential Election campaign will kick into an even higher gear than it has previously.

I think this process goes on for far too long. It ought to be shortened, which would help in terms of turnout and avoidance of boredom.

Perhaps I haven't been following this enough, but the partisan rancour of 2004 is somewhat reduced. Clearly the lack of George Bush is a factor there. Notice, however, how the Democrats are trying to tie McCain in with Bush by saying that he votes with him 90% of the time.

This is a bit of a stupid figure. A lot of votes in Congress are on largely uncontentious subjects, like congratulating Olympic medallists, confirming appointments (OK, that's sometimes contentious) and adjournment stuff.

I don't know, really, why members of Congress have to be physically present to vote these days. Sure, they should turn up every so often, but with the power of modern telecommunications, remote voting can't be too hard to do.

My major concern with Obama is his lack of experience. He will have, in January 2009, four years in a national level (Senator, Governor, Vice-President) role. For those citing Palin, she's not running for President- and Governor has a better skill set than a first-term Senator. I'll get on to McCain's health in a bit.

His policies seem generally (I say generally) good, but his attitude seems wrong. For those making Tony Blair comparisons, it grates after 10 years. He seems a little, well, slick.

It may sound like heresy to some, but JFK wasn't as good as some make out. Bay of Pigs for example, was a decision made on grounds of popularity and look what happened. His morals leave something to be desired too...

I don't like either candidate distorting the viewpoints and statements of the other. McCain on tax policy and Obama on the 100 years in Iraq thing. Both are better than this.

McCain has experience, but being a war hero does not qualify you to be president. That said, the Green Bay Packers thing in Vietnam (giving the names of a football team to interrogators as those of other pilots), great.

Biden's a good Vice-Presidental candidate, I give you that. Apart from the Neil Kinnock thing- and the gaffes.

Palin's an interesting choice. The college guys might consider voting Republican- which is all I'm saying on that. Her views are another issue, although I oppose abortion for social reasons. The actions of her family are ultimately irrelevant. They also prove that neither abstinence or safe-sex sex education work just as they are.

McCain's health. He's 72 and statistically has a 1/3 chance of dying within eight years. He may die, he may not. That's an argument, however, for rapidly training Palin as a potential POTUS, not voting against him.

I'll back Obama, as a social democrat does, but I'm not expecting miracles from him.

Joseph Biden

So, Joe Diden, a Senator from Delaware will be Barack Obama's running mate.

I don't really know much about Biden, except that he plagiarised Neil Kinnock one time. I understand he's been in the Senate for 30 years and been Chair of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee.

I also understand he's gaffe-prone. Wonder if he'll make any gaffes. Probably.

While Biden may provide some foreign policy experience, it doesn't change the fundamental issue- Biden may have been in Congress for three decades, but Obama has only been there for three years. He remains inexperienced.

The Olympic Games

I don't believe it. We're actually doing well at a sport event.

Congratulations to all our competitors.

Georgia

Following up to my post on Russia, this is one on Georgia.

Georgia has not had a nice history. Under Russian rule, St. Petersburg (Moscow wasn't the capital before 1917) tried to wipe out the Georgian language. Stalin, who was of course Georgian, wasn't much better.

The Rose Revolution in 2003 was one of the best things to happen to Georgia. However, Saakashvili's re-election appears to have been dodgy. He probably would have won a run-off, but we'll never know.

Georgia, while slightly dodgy, is far less dodgy than Russia.

The offensive in South Ossetia may well have been provoked by Russia, but I can't help thinking that Georgian intelligence clearly missed something. With reports that Saakashvili was warned not to launch the attack by Western allies, it may well have been a blunder.

I don't know about artillery uses. I suspect there have been Georgian atrocities, but not to the extent the Russians claim. Constantly stating you're stopping fighting then continuing seems a bit dodgy. Again, not fully clear on this.

I'd like to know whether opposition to this conflict has been expressed in Tbilisi by anyone. Of course, there was martial law.

Russia

Reports from South Ossetia are still conflicting and clearly one or both sides is being more than economical with the truth as to what is going on, as well as how it started.

I'm going to use this particular post to discuss Russia. A later one will cover Georgia and I might do a third on South Ossetia.

The Bolshevik popular coup (it's not a revolution) of November 1917 was the worst thing to happen to Russia in its history. It has brought Russia little but misery. What benefits the Communist regime brought to the USSR could have occured without and are outweighed by the millions of death.

I don't hate Russia. I don't hate Russians. In fact, I have Russian friends and I have a keen interest in the country. Korobeiniki (the theme tune to Tetris) is one of my favourite tunes. On AJJE Games, one of my characters is of Russian descent and I don't play her as a caricature.

I detest their government, that's all. The Prime Minister of the world's second most powerful country is- get this-a former KGB agent. Yes, I know he wasn't in it for long and just did a brief stint in East Germany before resigning. However, joining the KGB takes either gross stupidity or a gross lack of morality. The organisation is rightly notorious and its predecessors are even worse.

Medvedev complains about the "missile shield", which isn't even aimed at him (look at a globe and you'll see). Yet his country is placing multiple warheads on the Topol-M missiles, constructing more Tu-160 "Blackjack" intercontinental bombers and constructing new SSBNs to replace the Kal'mar/"Delta III" class submarines. Isn't that a tad hypocritical?

(US hypocrisy on other issues is not for this post, BTW)

Seriously, is there a Havel or Walesa in Russia? Because it sorely needs one. It deserves much better than what it has at the moment.

South Ossetia

I was going to do a post today on China and the Olympic Games, but I feel this is more important.

If you're not already aware, Russian forces have entered the breakaway province of South Ossetia in Georgia.

What's going on precisely is unclear. It's a bunch of statements from both sides (the Georgian President is on TV at the moment on BBC News 24), with the usual claims, counter-claims and propaganda, at the moment. Independent journalist reports are few yet.

I have Georgian and Russian friends. I hope and pray for their safety.

Censor, censor, censor...

The Dark Knight is setting box office records the world over- and newspaper columnists in the UK at edge.

The issue is the movie's rating from the British Board of Film Classification (BBFC)- 12A, which allows those under 12 to watch it with their parents present. The feeling among them is that this movie warrants a 15 rating (so no-one under 15 can be admitted or buy the DVD).

I agree- this should be a 15. There's a lot of violence in this movie and a certain character is truely disturbing. Not one I'd take any young kids of mine (if I had any) to see.

Cue the usual outcry at the BBFC for not protecting children from the "purveyors of filth", etc. I see mediawatch-UK (set up by the late Mary Whitehouse) have commented on it.

This won't be the first bad call the BBFC has made- or its last. I'd like to cite The Spy Who Came In From The Cold, which contains a background striptease in one scene that goes to pastie-breast level (with close-up), cleared as A (the PG-13 of that time), then recleared for PG when the ratings changed. John Trevelyan (head back when the C stood for Censors) was a rather subjective guy when it came to what got cut- apparently it involved the reaction in his groinal area.

You can get even more ridiculous- look up the Hays Code for examples.

All this said, I think there are a tad too many SCW (Scantily Clad Women) on TV these days. Does nearly every UK crime show have to feature topless strippers at some point?

Comments are welcome.

This isn't X, this is pest control!

The papers today are running stories on the discovery that last year there were over 20,000 call outs for pest controllers in the NHS last year.

Apparently this is a sign that our hospitals are still dirty, Labour are rubbish etc, etc.

A typical silly season story that really needs some closer scrutiny:

• How many cases were there last year?
  
• Isn't this an indication that NHS staff are acting to get rid of infestations?
• What are we counting? Wasps can easily get in through windows.
• What was it like under the Tories, eh?
  

Global Warming

This post may meander a little. I hope you don't mind.

I just watched Burn Up (BBC2). A two-part conspiracy thriller involving global warming, the late great Don S. Davis (who played General Hammond in Stargate SG-1) and a bunch of evil Americans who don't care about climate change. Mediocre really, with an overly emotive first part and perhaps an hour too long. Had some interesting facts though.

So, it's got me thinking about global warming and the solutions thereof. A few questions have come to mind.

Firstly, the completeness of the data. Of course, there's the ice floe things. How reliable are they? However, there's other areas. One cannot extrapolate for an entire planet from a small iceberg, at least I don't think so.

We've got a massive lack of data from the Sahara and places like that. The desert may well be expanding there, but what was it like in the past? European settlers arrived about 500 years ago and I'm not sure what the Yoruba (or the other tribes) were like in the map-making field. Can anyone help?

One that stands out. The highest recorded temperature in Earth history was in El Azizia, Libya, recorded at 58 degrees Celsius (136 degrees Fahrenheit). In 1922. None of the individual continent records is after 1962. Since the global temperature is increasing and that, apparently, would result in more extremes of climate, why have these records not been broken? Surely, we have the technology and we'd note any such records broken.

The reliable data only exists from 1850- 20 years into the Industrial Revolution. Back at this point, we have to rely on anecdotal evidence. Take a look at this graph. It seems that the historians don't agree with each by a small, but possibly signifcant margin. While the global temperature is certainly increasingly...

OK, water shortages. I understand the difference between salt water and fresh water, but surely solar-powered desalination plants aren't that built. Humanity can build the Magnitogorsk blast furnace, so can't it build desalination plants like that.

Nuclear works. 24/7, in a way that other stuff doesn't. Once we've fully sorted out the waste disposal problem (very big holes seem to be the best way to go), I think we need to increase it, although not too much. Solar and other stuff has its place. Maybe not wind farms. I don't like wind farms, unless you can make them into windmills. That's not a half-bad idea...

Kyoto's supposed to be this wonderful thing, but the number of states who have met their targets can apparently be counted on two hands. How does one monitor carbon emissions anyway? Surely a big forest fire would release a massive amount of C02 as well. It's an estimate, isn't it? Which leads me onto the massive fires created after the Tungska impact 100 years ago. That's got to have done something long term. Also Mount St Helens.

Biggest disaster of the 21st Century so far? The 2004 tsunami. Caused by an earthquake. Cyclone Nargis is only about half of that.

Biggest mass death of the 20th Century? World War Two.

I do think that Homo sapiens are a major cause of climate change, but I'd like to see the evidence.

Comments and answers to my questions are welcome. I have comment moderation on, but I'll let more or less anything reasonable through.

Glasgow East

I'm not going to deny it, that was an awful result. Labour should not be losing seats like that full stop.

The incomparable Alun Ephraim (who has blogging privileges here) describes things in more depth in this thread. Join the site too, it's fun.

Al is right about the Scottish Labour Party. We've dominated the place so long, we've got fat and lazy. This will not do.

The biggest blow is in the psychological field. I'd say that the in-fighting and calls for Brown to resign will increase, which is not a good thing. Especially as it is now silly season (considering this warm weather, expect more bikini-clad students to grace certain newspapers).

Let's hold our horses for a while- at least until after Conference.

Edit- Al currently goes by the username "Sibboleth" on that site.

ITV can't do a thing right at the moment

On 26 March 2005, Doctor Who began its revival on BBC1. Since then, ITV have only managed to beat the ratings for that most excellent show with one thing- the final of Britain's Got Talent.

I can't remember a seriously good new ITV show in the last few years. Even BGT is something you watch with liberal use of the fast-forward button. Maybe Michael Grade ought to realise that rubbish game shows are not the way to go.

If you're going to do a game show- bring back Interceptor.

Return of the blog

I've decided to start blogging here. It's been a number of months since I've been here (less than I thought though).

Recently came back from a holiday in New York and Chicago. I have some advice for the New York Subway people- signpost your stations better.

Chicago is a far nicer city than New York, although apparently there were a lot of shootings recently. I was in the downtown area, so I missed those. Saw some awful French circus thing at Navy Pier when I was there. Human carillon or something like that.

I'll be posting as and when. Expect comments on Obama, Chip Man (as I call McCain), life in Blighty and other interesting things.

A quick plug. AJJE Games. RP site I've been on for a few years. Registration required, but you can see parts of each main area.

Back from Holiday

It's been quite a while since I posted here. I went on holiday to France and there I saw a couple of Hitchcock films (having recently acquired a box set on the cheap). A lot of Hitch's films seem to involve the same basic plot- innocent man gets framed and has to clear his name (has there ever been an innocent woman version of this plot? I will have to make inquiries).

I watched Picture Perfect yesterday. An OK rom-com, whose primary purpose seemed to be getting Jennifer Aniston into as many short outfits as possible (I think it went into double figures). Has Ms. Aniston ever been killed in one of her films? Again I will have to make enquiries.

The Bourne Ultimatum

It's been quite a while since I last posted an entry here. I've been busy and I've just forgotten. Sorry about that.

I've seen a few films recently, such as the titular film in a local cinema. It was a bit hard to catch up on the trilogy to begin with (I'd seen the previous two films, but that was a while), but it was quite a good film. I'm glad a certain character didn't die.

I've come to the conclusion that Iraq may be irretrievable and if the surge doesn't work, we should focus all our efforts on training the Iraqis.

Ice Age: The Meltdown

Watched this yesterday. A bit boring, but the end was good.

Ice Age: The Meltdown

Watched this yesterday. A bit boring, but the end was good.

Three films

I watched three films recently. Well, two and a half.

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix is a bit rubbish. It never really gets going and relies too much on special effects. It only works since it's part of a whatever-you-call-a-seven-film series.

Children of Men (watched on Sky Anytime) starts off well, but gets a little tedious towards the end. The dystopianness is well done.

Syriana is boring, hard to follow and uninteresting. I gave up after half an hour.

Confetti and The Fly

Haven't posted here for a while. Been busy with real life. Plus I've just plain forgot.

I watched these two films recently. Confetti is a reasonably funny British mockumentary about three couples getting married. It contains nudity. A lot of nudity. Male and female. Full-frontal as well.

The Fly is not a pleasant film. Very gory and disgusting. However, it did give the world the expression "Be afraid. Be very afraid".

Harriet Harman and Blair's departure

So Harriet Harman's been elected as Labour's Deputy Leader. I didn't vote for her at all, but I'll have to accept the decision.

Blair has now stopped being PM and Gordon is in charge. Let's see what he does first. I've met him and I think he'll be good though.

Happy Feet

Watched this on Monday off Sky Box Office. Not bad, but not brilliant. Lacked a certain je ne sais quoi. Why did the other penguins have to be (somewhat stereotypical) Mexicans?

Alien: Resurrection

Watched this for the sake of completeness recently.

Some quick points:

1. How does a fresh clone have painted fingernails?
2. I didn't recognise Winona Ryder at all.
3. The "black man sacrificing himself" trope in these kind of films is starting to get a bit cliched.

Benn for Deputy

www.benn4deputy.org

Read why I and many others are backing Hilary Benn for Deputy Leader of the Labour Party.

He rocks.

Soylent Green

Saw this a couple of days ago (taped off the telly). It's a reasonably good sci-fi film, albeit somewhat dated looking. Oh, and the fake blood looked really fake.

I suppose everyone knows the big secret, but I won't reveal it here.

Elections in June

3 June: Senegal, Parliament
June 10: Belgium, Parliament
10 June: Mayotte, Assembly
June 10 and June 17: France, Legislature Sarkozy's lost should do well.
13 June: Israel, President
June 20: Togo, Parliament
20 June: Nepal, Constituent Assembly
24 June: Republic of the Congo, Parliament (1st round)
30 June: East Timor, Parliament
30 June-10 July: Papua New Guinea, Parliament
June: British Virgin Islands, Legislature
June: Jordan, Parliament
June: Kiribati, Parliament
June: Nauru, President
June: Samoa, o le Ao o le Malo That's the head of state. The previous one died after four and a half decades in the post.

Predator

Saw this a few days ago and thought it was reasonably good. Mind you, the way Arnie avoids the Predator got busted by the MythBusters...

Also features two later state governors (Arnie and Jesse Ventura)

The Descent

I watched this yesterday. Word of advice, try not to watch this while eating- I spilt my drink at a jumpy bit.

A pretty good film, though rather gory and sweary (I recorded the sign language version and now know the BSL for a certain four-letter word). An interesting ending.

Vote Labour

Tomorrow is the local and devolved government elections in the UK. You may have issues with Tony Blair, but he'll be gone soon. Don't take your anger out on hardworking Labour councillors.

That's just one reason to vote Labour.

The American President

I haven't posted here for a while, but I saw this film recently (I taped it off the telly).

I'm not the biggest fan of romantic films, but I liked this one. It's written by Aaron Sorkin, the creator of The West Wing and features three people who would appear in the show (most notably Martin Sheen.

I recommend it.

The Prisoner of Zenda (1952)

Quite a good film, with a nice swordfight at the end. Stewart Granger plays two roles and it's an early example of having two versions of the same person in one shot.

Ghostbusters 2

Not a bad sequel, but not brilliant. Better in the second half. Peter MacNichol- not so good.

First film is better.

Happy Easter!

Just want to wish all my readers a Happy Easter.

He is risen indeed!

West Ham 1 Arsenal 0

Well, that's a turn up for the books.

Keep going like this and we'll stay up. Something must have changed in the West Ham side.

By the way, there is still only one Bobby Zamora.

The Adventures of Robin Hood (1938)

Watched this one because a part of it was covered in MythBusters.

Quite a good film, although there was a plot hole. I prefer Errol Flynn's Robin Hood to that of Jonas Armstrong, although he did laugh a bit too much.

Good Friday

Remember the reason for today.

It's the death of Jesus so our sins can be forgiven and we can go to heaven. Of course, he would rise again on Easter Sunday.

2001: A Space Odyssey

I have a strong suspicion that the SFX poll got vote-rocked (i.e. mass-voted on) by Firefly fans. My earlier comments on the film still stand, though.

The film that is the title of the post got into there as well. Not so sure about that one, which I finished watching today. Well shot, realistic in many ways, but drags awfully in many places. There's not even many jokes.

I prefer Serenity, definitely.

The Falklands- 25 years on

I'm a bit young to remember the Falklands War. I won't say how young I am.

On BBC Parliament yesterday, they were showing old news coverage of the war. I didn't even know the Argentines had an aircraft carrier back then...

Let us remember those who died liberating the Falkland Islands and the poor Argentine soldiers who died for a corrupt junta.

Serenity voted best sci-fi film by SFX readers

http://www.sfx.co.uk/page/sfx?entry=lord_of_the_fireflies

Well, that's a turn up for the books. It's a good film and I intend to watch the series.

The Iranian hostage situation

I suppose this has been covered in some depth in other blogs, so let me add some points of my own.

Firstly, it's going to be pretty much impossible to prove one way or the other where the British boat in question actually was. Maps and evidence can be faked and I don't think the Americans had a spy satellite in the right place at the right time.

Secondly, either the British have done something very stupid or the Iranians have. I'd personally favour the Iranians.

Thirdly, does anyone think that the British military personnel have been tortured or threatened with torture?

Comments are welcome.

An apology

I've been posting my comments on 24 on this blog for a while now, not realising that not all countries have seen these episodes. I apologise to anyone I've inadvertently spoiled the show for and will remove all 24 related posts from my blog.

Sorry.

Abolition of the slave trade

It's 200 years since the abolition of the slave trade in the British Empire.

Let's, however, make some points:

• Slavery still continued in the British Empire for another 26 years.
• Slavery lasted for another 56 years in the US.
• Slavery still goes on today.

So let's not get too excited about this anniversary.

Iraq- Four Years On

It's probably best that I link you to my post last year on the matter:

http://thesilenthunter.blogspot.com/2006/03/iraq-three-years-on.html

We should add the words "sectarian militias and death squads" to that.

There's little point in repeating myself again.

Trident renewed

The vote has passed in the Commons, with 95 Labour MPs rebelling.

While I may not agree with the decision, I accept it. However, there needs to be serious work on multilateral disarmament. That will reduce the risk of proliferation.

Trident (again)

As you're probably aware, the Commons is to vote on whether to renew Britain's nuclear deterrent, Trident, on Wednesday. You're also probably aware that a minister and a PPS are resigning over the issue.

I read the Defence White Paper on this today after a recommendation from a Labour-supporting friend. While it's not changed my mind on the issue (I still support non-renewal and negotiations on multi-lateral disarmament, with the Lib Dem proposal as second best), it has clarified a few points.

So let's say a few things:

• The Americans do not have a veto over whether we can launch our nuclear weapons. We do not rely on American satellites.
• It's completely unclear and deliberately so what our targeting policy is. It is by no means a given that Pyongyang, Beijing or Tehran will not nuked. It's also no means a given that they won't. That's nuclear deterrence for you.
• All of the other four "permitted" nuclear states are modernising their weapons and even improving them (Russia's SS-27s anyone?). Britain is merely renovating them. CND would be a lot more credible if they campaigned against those countries as welll, especially the People's Republic. They may well be a British campaign, but their briefings say nothing about the Chinese. Some people would call that biased.
• The subs are, for the moment, pretty much undetectable.

Comments are welcome.

Last Action Hero

Finished off Last Action Hero yesterday, which was reasonably good. The Governator was good in it. Mind you, there was an inaccuracy of action movies in the 'real world'.

America Firsters

One thing that really annoys me are politicians (most often American ones) saying that we should stop "interfering" in the world and deal with our own problems.

That's rather a selfish view, IMHO. Plus, these problems don't get better without outside intervention. Two, if we were to, par exemple, withdraw from Iraq prematurely, there would be a failed state that would cause problems for America, Britain and other countries.

Where are the internationalists in American politics? And don't say the protectionist Democrats are better.

Hot Fuzz

Saw this at the cinema yesterday. I'd highly recommend it. It's laugh-out-loud funny, has some great (and funny) action scenes and a lot of famous UK faces (Timothy Dalton is particularly good). The plot's not half bad either.

Ian Richardson 1934-2007

The first time I saw Ian Richardson was in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy and he was great in that. I've never seen House of Cards though. He was great as Death in Hogfather.

He'll be sorely missed.

Doom

Bit gory, a lot of foul language and virtually all the cast end up dead. Some violations of the laws of physics as well (In the real world, people do not fly back ten feet when shot).

The first-person bit was nice, mind.

Gremlins

Finished off Gremlins today and found it OK. The Stage 1 Gremlins were a bit unconvincing (eyes didn't look real), but the second stage ones were better.

Wasn't there a sequel made to this?

My Iraq plan

It's important for those who are criticising Bush's policy on Iraq to say what they would do differently. I'm not exactly a critic, but here's what I think we should do:

1. Place the Iraqis firmly in command. Put their generals and leaders in charge of the Multi-National Forces.
2. Focus our effects a lot more on training the Iraqi forces.
3. Zero tolerance of corruption, police abuse of power.
4. Banning all the militias. In fact, get the Iraqi government to make possession of a firearm, save by the militaries and bodyguards, a criminal offence.
5. Point out who is responsible for most of the deaths in Iraq.
6. When the training of the Iraqi forces is done, start fully withdrawing, but set the timetable privately.
7. Take a tough stance with Iran and Syria. These regimes simply need to stop arming these terrorists. Sanctions would be a good idea, but not war.
8. No use of torture. It just makes us look bad.
9. Carry on with the province-by-province transfer of security, but speed it up.

Comments are welcome.

The hydrogen bomb

I've been watching Nuclear Secrets on BBC2 and found it quite good. The latest episode is about the hydrogen bomb. I wasn't sure whether it was the right decision to make it until I heard some of the stuff about the effects of the hydrogen bomb. It essentially atomises anything within three miles of Ground Zero.

That's far too powerful to be allowed. These weapons should be banned.

Holocaust Memorial Day

Today marks the 62nd anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz. Let's hope and pray that the current repetition in Darfur is stopped and quickly.

State of the Union

I watched Bush's speech off C-SPAN this morning. It wasn't brilliant. It had some good proposals, but the Iraq section was somewhat poor.

Oh, and it's always funny when half of Congress stand up. Does anyone think that Bush was being a bit insincere when he congratulated Speaker Pelosi.

Comments are welcome.

Five Minutes to Midnight...

The Doomsday Clock has moved for the first time in four years.

It now stands at 11.55pm.

This is obviously a bad thing. It's why we need action on climate change and nuclear weapons.

The surge

I always seem to be coming back to an Iraq discussion. I won't insult your intelligence by saying why.

So let's be brief here.

The surge sounds like a good idea. I hope it works. If it doesn't, we should set a private timetable for getting out.

The war was the right decison. It was just badly carried out.

By the way, can someone tell me about the Congressional vote on the surge plan. What type of resolution will it be?

WarGames and Hotel Rwanda

I watched WarGames on Sunday. It's a reasonably entertaining film. Logically slightly insane, but still entertaining.

I also watched Hotel Rwanda. Well-made and educational. It's not really meant to be entertaining.

Cry_Wolf

Wonder what the URL for this post will be. That's not a typo, BTW, the underscore is included in the film's title.

And a pretty good film it is too. Great twists throughout and a great plot. And it's not particularly gory either. I didn't recognise Jon Bon Jovi, but then again I don't really follow 80s pop.

Cowboy Bebop: The Movie

I haven't had a huge amount of experience of Japanese Anime. About the only thing that I'd watched before this was Pokemon. When I saw this film was being shown on Sci-Fi, I decided to tape it, after having the series recommended to me by a friend.

Perhaps I really ought to have watched it all in one go. I tend to enjoy films more when I do that. Not that that'll stop me when it comes to Cry_Wolf.

For those of you who don't know, Cowboy Bebop is a series about a team futuristic bounty hunters. The film is about their attempts to find a terrorist.

It's quite a good film with plenty of twists and turns, although it is a bit hard to follow. The opening sequence is particularly good.

Lord of War

I'm going to start doing a reasonably regular feature on the films that I've watched. First up is Lord of War, which, if you don't know already, is about gunrunning. It stars Nicholas Cage.

The film isn't really meant to be entertainment, but more to talk about the arms trade. It makes some very good educational points about the arms trade, an area I'm interested in. While there are some anarchronisms (and factual inaccuracies) in it, it is still watchable and I'd recommend it.

I'd also recommend you watch this:

http://www.protectthehuman.com/teleshop/guns/

Edited to add a new label.

Saddam Hanged

Well, I suppose I don't need to link to it. You probably know about it already.

I oppose the death penalty and would have preferred it if Saddam had spent the rest of his life in an Iraqi prison. But I won't be mourning his death.

I hope this makes things better. But sadly, we've had too many false dawns...

Merry Christmas

Just to wish all of my readers a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

Ross's evidence

After hearing about the fact that Carne Ross's evidence to the Butler Inquiry being published and seeing the Independent at a a newsagents I bought it and had a look.

The case against the government is still not proven. All that Ross has said is that until mid-2002, officials (i.e. not the relevant ministers) did not believe that Iraq was a threat to the UK or its interest (and that's not saying he wasn't a threat to other people's interest). He also is only saying officials opposed regime change, which we know. As for the statement about selling 1441, it could be true or it could not be.

We still do not know what the wisdom at March 2003 was, but all the committees have agreed that the intel was not misrepresented. Butler considered this and ruled the way he did. This is not a smoking gun.

Comments are welcome.

The full document can be found on the Indie website.

Edited for punctuation.

Trident

For those of you who haven't been following UK political news, Ming Campbell has proposed halving the number of nuclear warheads that Britain possesses to 100.

This might be the second best solution. Personally, I don't think we should renew Trident. I'm not saying to get rid of it overnight, just that we shouldn't spend £25 billion on renewing. We'll still have it for 15 more years- plenty of time for further arms control negotiations to succeed.

The main reason is that it serves no useful purpose. The Russians aren't going to attack. The Chinese don't have the range and probably aren't that interested in us. The people who want to attack us aren't going to be deterred anyway by it. We couldn't really use it against terrorists anyway. And using it against a terrorist training camp would reek of disproportionality.

Comments are welcome.

Casino Royale

Saw Casino Royale on Sunday, so I may as well say a few words about it. Don't worry, I won't spoil it for you.

So 7 points (since it's 007, geddit?):

1. Daniel Craig is a good Bond. He can do the action scenes brilliantly and his less "Bondian" moments can be explained by the fact that this is a more human Bond.
2. Eva Green- great as Vesper Lynd.
3. Mads Mikkelsen was good as Le Chiffre.
4. Good plot, if slightly unclear at times.
5. Q and Moneypenny's absence was a good thing.
6. Great lines and jokes.
7. Stunts were great.

All in all a good Bond film.

By the way, I've put comment moderation back on. Much as I don't like the idea of censorship in advance, the spam must stop. Only spam will be blocked.

EDIT- To make the second sentence more gramatically correct.

Remembrance Sunday

They shall not grow old, as we that are left grow old. At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them.

We will remember them.

USA 2006- The Analysis

It became rather obvious that Allen had conceded when at 8.23 pm GMT on Thursday, the US Election Atlas forum gave me the “Connection Problems” page.

I think we’re all aware of the saying that “Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them”. And the Republicans certainly lost this one.

So now the reasons.

Why the Republicans lost:
Iraq. This is the primary reason why they lost. Little has gone right in Iraq over the last two years, in fact the last three and people were highly frustrated. Thus they voted against the party they deemed responsible. Bush’s “stay the course” rhetoric ultimately didn’t help.
Corruption- both moral and financial. Foleygate was really the moment when the House became unsalvageable for the GOP. Ney cost the GOP OH-18, Foley FL-16.
The evangelicals didn’t turn out. Mostly for reason 2.
Hurricane Katrina. If the federal government hadn’t been so incompetent when it came to dealing with this disaster, George W. Bush wouldn’t have lost a great deal of popularity.
The Latino vote. There was a 15% swing against the Republicans among this group and it probably cost them some close races. Appeasing the base by a tough stance on immigration meant that this group was annoyed.
The economy got wildly misinterpreted. Despite the DOW going over 12,000 and the lowest unemployment rate for 5 years, 50% of the CNN exit poll sample thought the economy was not very good or poor.
Virginia. I think it’s safe to say that if Allen hadn’t made the comment he did, the Republicans would have retained the Senate on Cheney’s casting vote.

Why the Democrats won:
Managed to avoid any major gaffes. Kerry’s botched joke was the worst, which is saying something.
Didn’t define their Iraq policy. If they’d specified an Iraq policy, they’d have been attacked on it. All they needed to do was say “we need to change course”. I’d have preferred an alternative policy, but you can’t have everything.
I’d have to agree with what someone said at US Election Atlas- they effectively portrayed the entire Congressional GOP as uncritical Bush followers.

So, Congress has changed, for better or worse.

Now onto 2008…

Edited to make the last Democrat point clearer.

32 out of 33

That's how many Senate races I called correctly. I was wrong in Virginia. Because I was wrong in Virginia, I called the balance of power incorrectly. Oh, well, you can't win them all.

I'm glad the Democrats won. While I supported (and continue to support) the Iraq war, it's become monumentarily clear that a) this thing was very poorly handled and b) that it's a mess. Rumsfeld should have gone after Abu Ghraib.

I just hope there really is bi-partisanship in Washington this time...

Expect a fuller analysis over the next few days.

Hilary Benn, you rock

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6117924.stm

Hopefully this will get adopted as government policy, but I sadly doubt it.

Keep this up, Hilary and you'll be my new favourite Cabinet Minister.

November

November 5: Nicaragua, General Election
November 6: Tajikistan, President
November 7: United States, House of Representatives and Senate (one third: "Class I" Senators) Democrats gain the House, the Senate ends up tied.
November 12: Poland, Local (1st round
November 19: Mauritania, Parliament
November 22: The Netherlands, Tweede Kamer Balkenende is history.
November 23: Isle of Man, House of Keys
November 25: Australia, Victorian State Election
November 26: Ecuador, President (2nd round)
November 26: Poland, Local (2nd round

And in other news, only 12 days until Bond...

(From Wikipedia's Electoral Calendar)

Ramble 5- Robin Hood and Clare Short

Two people who you seriously wouldn't imagine together. Imagine Clare Short as one of the Merry Men- sorry they're the Outlaws now.

Which brings us nicely onto Robin Hood. After two death-free episodes, we get eight in 45 minutes, which makes Taggart look positively peaceful. They're milking the war on terror analogy for all it's worth. The series is still reasonable, but Jonas Armstrong seems a bit young to be Robin Hood.

Clare Short has resigned from the Parliamentary Labour Party. I wasn't surprised and in fact am quite pleased. The woman should have been thrown out for blatant disloyalty. It should be remembered that this woman has always been on the left of the party (resigning from the front bench over the first Gulf War and supporting Irish reunification) and is not representative of most of it.

Due to a dodgy Internet connection, I'm a bit behind on The Zone, my NS news column. It's bi-weekly ATM for personal reasons.

I've only seen one episode of The Unit, but it's reasonably good. Dennis Haysbert's a great actor.

Edited to remove the word "still" from the Jonas Armstrong sentence.

Robin Hood, Robin Hood, riding to renewal!

Saw the second episode of Robin Hood this evening. Not quite as good as the first episode, which made me think the Beeb had a hit on their hands. They may still do.

Some points here. I'm not sure about Jonas Armstrong's Robin. He's not what I expected of Robin Hood (but then again, the only Robin Hood I saw prior to this was Prince of Thieves).

The 'war on terror' analogy is very noticeable here.

Oh, and no-one's died yet.

What on earth?

I saw General Dannatt's interview with BBC Breakfast this morning. He mentioned that Des Browne had authorised his statement. He also sounded like he was backpedalling furiously.

Now the government is saying that he was reflecting policy.

This can mean a number of things:

1. Some serious wires have got crossed in the Ministry of Defence press office.
2. Dannatt is just stating the government's view in a way that can be misinterpreted.
3. We're preparing for a major U-turn on Iraq.

By the way, I believe things will be even worse if we pull out prematurely.

North Korea

So North Korea has officially joined the nuclear club, by setting off a nuclear bomb in an underground mineshaft. It's not a good thing that a dictator like Kim Jong-Il has nuclear weapons.

This development, while alarming, was not exactly surprising. It's been suspected for a while that the DPRK has nuclear weapons.

However, there are a couple of signs that we shouldn't panic just yet. Firstly, we have no idea whether the test was successful. It seems that the explosion was smaller than that of the Hiroshima bomb (which seems to the standard by which nuclear weapons are measured. That's not particulary successful. Secondly, the North is still years away from being able to put a bomb on a missile. Thirdly, their missiles aren't the most effective things.

What we do have to worry about is North Korea's conventional weaponry- most particularly the capacity of their artillery to devastate Seoul. Sadly, this makes a liberation of North Korea a non-starter.

A setback for world peace, yes. A rephrensible act, yes. A sign of imminent Armageddon, no.

Jack Straw's comments

I am personally a bit of fan of the Leader of Commons. I think he generally says the right thing at the right time.

I do not believe he is infallible, as in this case. I do not think that Jack Straw is right that it would be better for community relations if they did not wear veils. If they want to wear veils, that is their choice. They should not be asked to do something that they do not wish to do because of what someone else wants, at least not in this case. I don't believe that it harms community relations at all. What harms community relations is this sort of thing.

Comments are welcome.

Edited to be more accurate.

Coming up in October

The 1st sees three elections- Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Brazil's first round. In Austria, it could be close, but the OVP will probably win. Bosnia is pretty important, according to some analysts, because of issues over secession. Lula will probably win again in Brazil.

The 7th has Latvia.

Belgian municipals on the 8th.

Ecuador on the 15th.

Bulgaria Presidency and a Panama Canal expansion referendum on the 22nd.

We finish on the 29th with a run-off in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Brazil's second round. Kabila will probably win in the DRC.

"You can't play politics with people's jobs"

Caught the end of Kinnock's 1985 conference speech on BBC Parliament- you know the one where he attacked Militant. Good speech, very good speech. I don't understand all the context, but clearly some of the audience wasn't happy with the bit about Manchester City Council (I can't recall a walkout under Blair).

You'd never hear Blair using the word "Comrades" now. Or "socialism" for that matter.

The Political Map of Europe

Here you go.

Any errors, let me know in the comments.

'Coming up in October' will be up tomorrow.

Blair's speech

Came in at about 56 minutes long in the end.

Some thoughts on it:

• Not much Lib Dem bashing. Then again, they're no longer the main threat, Cameron's Tories are.
• Section on foreign policy was good as always. Regardless of your views on Iraq to begin with, we cannot abandon them now.
• Some great stuff on Cameron. Easily the highlight of the speech.
• The 'Thank yous' were nice.
• Good defence of some of our more controversial policies. It's our values that need to be implemented ultimately, not certain policies. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter where the money comes from, provided its spent.
• Great listing of Labour's achievements.
• Brilliant line about wanting to be the first Labour leader to win three successive elections.
• Didn't endorse anyone for the leadership, but that's not a surprise.

It wasn't the best of speeches, but it was good. Well done, Tony. And thank you.

Thailand

As you've heard, there was a coup in Thailand earlier this week. Thaksin Sinawatra, the Thai PM was overthrown by the military while in New York for the UN General Assembly.

Regardless of what you think of Thaksin, his record and policies, a coup was not the right way to deal with him. The courts had already thrown out the last election and there was going to be another one. If the people wanted Thaksin out, they would have voted him out at that election. Now they won't get a chance to make their decision on him.

Instead, an illegitimate military regime will start the process that will lead to a new constitution and PM. That's not the way it should happen. Thaksin should be allowed back into power.

It's a good thing there were no shots fired in this. It's a bad thing this coup happened in the first place.

I hope Thailand returns to democracy in the near future.

Sweden

As you may know, Sweden held its general election today and the left lost. Perrson has resigned as PM.

Naturally, as a social democrat, I'm unhappy when any PES party loses an election. At least it wasn't that bad a loss.

Sometime before the end of this month, I'll post my "Political Map of Europe". However, can someone tell me whether Yuschenko is a left-winger or a right-winger?

"The next party conference in a couple of weeks will be my last party conference as party leader"

Well, no exact date (Blair will probably go when he feels like going- the big question is whether it's before the May elections), but Blair's made his committment now. I think it's fair to let the guy choose the date he goes- that's what he deserves after leading us to three consecutive victories.

I suppose the leadership race starts here, although it won't really kick until Blair sets a date.

Edit- When the ballot comes up, I'll probably vote for Brown and, if he runs, Straw for Deputy Leader.

Tony Blair's future

As you're probably aware, seven junior ministers, including Defence Minister Tom Watson, resigned today because Tony Blair hasn't named a date for when he's going to go. They had all signed the letter calling for Blair to set a date.

I'm not sure what to think about this whole business. It's just that this endless speculation over the leadership stops us from doing the job of governing effectively. Blair will go in his own time (and probably when we least expect it). He's already said he won't fight another election and that his successor will have plenty of time to govern. Let him decide how he wants to go, or if you want him to go now, challenge him for the leadership. Just do something instead of making statements. I just want this speculation to stop- it's annoying.

Your opinions are welcome in the comments box.

Podcasts and NationStates

The Labour Party now has a podcast (kudos to http://www.bloggers4labour.org for the tip). I haven't listened to it, but it just seems to be ministerial QandAs and speeches ATM. Perhaps Party HQ should get a prominent Labour celebrity (John O'Farrell anyone?) to do a weekly round of news and Tory-bashing. Don't forget the Tory bashing. Stick in some Liberal-bashing while you're at it. Maybe some competitions as well. We'll have to see.

I didn't get on the MAD Council, because it wasn't first come first served. I might challenge for a seat if a councillor does particularly little.

I'm still contributing to the Merit though, with a weekly article on NS news for InterMet. If you have any NS news, comment here.

If you want more info about the game, go to www.nationstates.net

Coming up in "Don't Know Much About This" September

10- Montenegro has its first post-independence election. Wiki has next to nothing on it.
17- Sweden. Close race likely between the two blocs. I'll say narrow centre-right victory.
22- Gambia- Probable APRC victory, but I don't really know any of the candidates.
26- Yemen. Probably going to be a rigathon for Ali Abdullah Saleh.
28- Zambia. Was close last time between the Movement for Multiparty Democracy and the United Party for National Development. Have no idea what it'll be like this time.

Ramble 4- Insert Quip Here

Watched the three-parter Murphy's Law this week. Not much to write home about. There's Dalizel and Pascoe (I think I've spelt that right) starting on Sunday.

Still not a huge amount going on the world. Iran's 'President' challenged America's President to a debate. It would have been an interesting spectacle, but the White House was right to refuse. It would given Ahmadinejad more legitimacy than he deserves.

I've applied to be an MAD Councillor at The Meritocracy. Should get in.

Tomorrow, I make my return to the forum at US Election Atlas as I said I would. With mid-terms coming up, it should be an interesting place to be.

I still haven't done my House and Governor Predictions. I'll get going on those starting tomorrow.

Ramble 3- Slow news week

It's a bit of a slow news week. Top story on the BBC is about the obesity report. That's not to say nothing is happening- Iraq is still plagued with problems, there's the usual crime stories- but there's nothing that's really got the news agenda buzzing. Everyone's on holiday and we can relax a little.

I've been busy this week having a go at a game I got in Smith's a while back- Lock On. As you may have guessed, it's a flight sim game. I've now spent several attempts trying to drop a bomb on a tank. It's not easy, especially when said bomb is not guided.

Stargate SG-1 has been cancelled. Having not yet seen any of Season 10 (it won't be on Sky for a while), I can't say whether it's got bad or not. It's been cancelled due to falling ratings (although Sci-Fi wouldn't admit that). Let's hope it gets picked up by another channel.

Tried and failed (thanks to a lot of abstentions) to get back into the Meritocratic Senate. I'll stick around, RP a bit, run for the City Council and apply again in a few months.

Back in the RRA and the ADN in NS as well. Not much going on there either.

Soon we'll be back into the maelstrom of the Conference season. But that can wait a couple of weeks.

Your thoughts?

Immigration

I got a UKIP leaflet through my letterbox this morning. On it, it states that "UKIP would reduce net immigration to zero".

This has a potential problem. As Britain's population ages, there are less people able to contribute to society through work. Reducing immigration would only worsen the dependency problem we are soon going to have.

Some other points. It's often claimed that immigrants are taking British jobs. In fact, they tend to do the jobs that British people don't want to do. And all of them contribute to a society in some way.

People come to Britain because we speak English as a national language. It's not like German or French is taught in schools in Romania, par exemple.

There's a nasty racist undertone to the whole anti-immigration business. UKIP, consciously or not, are playing on people's fears of their jobs being taken by foreign workers, who will (they claim) drive down wages. That's not an argument for reducing immigration, that's an argument for increasing the minimum wage.

As regards to multicultralism, what's wrong with it? We should celebrate diversity, not force people to give up their culture. If their practices are too far off mainstream or violate human rights, then there's an argument for banning them, but not for the sake of it. By the way, I do think that some anti-offensive measures are a bit silly.

Just out of curiousity, how would all those planning to retire to Spain react if Spain banned immigration from Britain?

I'll disable comments on this one.

Ramble 2

The ninth (or is it tenth?) series of Silent Witness concluded last night. It's been a decidingly mixed season and definitely not one of the show's best. Best episode was probably the downright weird "Supernova", with a very clever solution. None of the main characters (Leo, Harry and Nikki) really stand out.

After reading about it on UkGameshows.com, I watched the French version of Fort Boyard on TV5 Monde (I don't get France 2). It's a slightly different format from the UK one- being longer for a start (1 hour 50 minutes, with no ad-breaks). The most noticeable thing in this version was, unlike the UK version, Boyard is a nice guy. According to Wikipedia, he's only nasty in the UK versions. My French is only at GCSE Level though and it's poor in the speech department, so I can't say much else on what's said.

Watched March of the Penguins the other night. Good documentary, but I can't say it deserved an Oscar. I rarely agree with the Academy on pretty much anything (I throughly disliked Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, which won three Oscars).

What else have I been watching? CSI:Miami (the "most popular show on the planet") and The Bill, which has got distinctly better in recent months- it's also been ages since they killed any officers off, which has to be a good thing.

New Premiership season starts on Saturday. As a West Ham supporter, I'm hoping we do well (and we're predicted to do well, but predictions are just that- predictions). We've also got some UEFA Cup action to look forward to.

Middle East conflict is hopefully over. Both sides are claiming victory. It can't really honestly be said that either side have won on this. We all know who's lost- the Lebanese people.

Ramble 1

It's time for the start of what will be a fairly regular (i.e. whenever I feel like doing it) feature on this blog.

I'm going to take you on a gentle meander through a variety of topics of current interest. Please take your litter home with you.

There's an oldish saying- "500 channels and nothing to watch". It's distinctly true. Have you seen how much junk there is on satellite TV? I'm not going to name the channels in question (that would just give them free advertising), but it says something when the only thing remotely worth watching is Basil Brush on the CBBC Channel. Boom Boom indeed.

Speaking of the CBBC Channel, I watched the first episode of Raven: The Island, spin-off from, er, Raven. I'm not going to spoil it for you (I understand people don't like having it spoilt for them), save to say that there was a little too much exposition in it.

This leads me onto two more topics: monarchy and CGI. I'll start with monarchy. As some of you may know, the central character, the host per se, in Raven: The Island is a princess. Which got me thinking about monarchy in general. I'm mixed on monarchy. I don't like the idea of someone having a political position solely by virtue of who their parents were. However, I don't want to abolish the monarchy in the UK (mainly because I like the Queen. Charles on the other hand...). So I was distinctly mixed about this Princess character. She probably is a decent person, who just happens to be a princess. Then again I thought: just ignore, it's a TV programme.

Now onto CGI. Is it me, or is CGI really obvious these days, especially on TV? It was the case with R:TI. It's the same with Stargate. It doesn't look 'real' and the illusion is lost. Then again, I know a bit about TV production. By the way, I think model work on spaceships is better than CGI.

Joe Lieberman, as you know, narrowly lost the CT primary on Tuesday, over the Iraq War. I've taken the decision on my US Election prediction table to label this seat as an Independent seat, because Lieberman has effectively resigned as a Democrat by announcing his intention to run as an independent. I'm currently projecting an Independent Hold for Connecticut. My overall prediction for the Senate is:

Republicans 51
Democrats 47
Independents 2 (Saunders and Lieberman)

I haven't done the House or Governors yet. They'll be done gradually.

News today has been dominated by the terror arrests and the alert today. I'm not going to comment further until after any possible trials, save to say: Good job.

NEC Results

http://www.labour.org.uk/index.php?id=news2005&ux_news[id]=necresults&cHash=7e2b910037

So Walter Wolfgang is on the NEC. Not too surprising, I suppose. The Beeb are leading with that in their Politics section.

Perhaps we're moving to the left again. Let's hope we don't actually elect McDonnell as Leader.

The Middle East

Since the Palestinians elected a Hamas government, little has been going right in the Middle East.

Now, Israel is bombing targets in Lebanon, while Hizbollah is firing rockets into Israel. It's still being called a crisis. It's almost, if not quite, a war.

Here are some general thoughts of my own on this situation:

• Some of Israel's targetting does not seem to make logical sense- i.e. the international airport in Beirut.
• The Lebanese haven't been particuarly vocal on this situation. Probably don't want to be seen as supporting the terrorists. Why don't they do something about it?
• Just what do Hizbollah hope to achieve by randomly lobbing rockets at Israeli towns? It's just making the Israelis angrier.

I hope and pray we can find some solution to this before it's too late.

NEC Elections

As a card-carrying member of the Labour Party, I get to vote in NEC elections (I'll also get to vote for the next leader and deputy leader).

The NEC, for those of you not in the know is Labour's main decision making body. It's made up of (and I quote):

• The leader (Blair)
• The deputy leader (Prescott for the time being...)
• Treasurer
• 12 TU members
• 6 constituency party members (the ones I get to vote for)
• 3 government ministers
• 3 MPs or MEPs
• 2 Councillors
• 1 Young Labour Representative
• 1 "representative of the socialist societies"
• The leader of the European Parliament Labour Party (I don't know who that is).

So who's running for the NEC. Notable names are:

• Lorna Fitzsimmons- former MP for Rochdale until the students there voted her out.
• Helen Jackson: Former MP for Sheffield Hillsborough.
• Walter Wolfgang- yes, that Walter Wolfgang. The one who got thrown out of the Labour Conference for heckling and got us accused of being fascists.

There seem to be two distinct blocs:

• The Grassroots Alliance (Wolfgang and his crew- noticeably anti-Iraq war)
• The leadership's preferred candidates. I voted for most of these.

You can vote until 31 July.

A Year On

I don't need to remind everyone what today is the anniversary of.

A year ago, London had just won the Olympic Games. I was home for the day and nowhere near Central London. I had the day all planned out. Those plans were not to be.

I was making my way to a television to watch MacGyver, which was scheduled for 9am. The radio on and as I was walking, I heard that there had been an explosion at Liverpool Street station.

I switched over to the news channels and then cleared MacGyver off the planner. I wasn't in the mood to watch it.

It wasn't immediately clear these were actually explosions. The initial reports were saying power surges.

I spent much of the rest of the day reading the news sites and watching the news reports. I didn't feel in the mood to do much else. Al sent me an email checking whether I was OK. I really appreciated that.

Two weeks later, they tried to repeat their act of barbarism. Fortunately they failed.

On a couple of occasions afterwards, I had reason to travel through the section of the Tube where the Aldgate bombing took place. Whenever the train passed through that area, the lights flickered. It was not a pleasant reminder.

A year on and Sir Ian Blair says further attacks are 'almost inevitable'. I hope he's wrong. I fear he's right.

Yet another four years of hurt...

Before this competition started, I was predicting that England would go out in the quarter finals. Events have proved me right.

Rooney joins Southgate and Beckham in the "We went out thanks to you" club. I'm not sure if the stamp was intentional (only Wayne knows that), but it sure looked painful. Then again, he really shouldn't have shoved that Portugese player. May not have deserved a red, though, but that doesn't excuse it.

However much we've been practising penalties, it clearly hasn't been enough...

Sven's reign is over. Roll on McLaren.

Ind Hold Blaenau Gwent, Con Hold Bromley and Chislehurst

By-elections are ultimately that- by-elections. They have their own special circumstances and their own issues. People have a tendency to vote differently than they would if the Government is at stake.

So, I'm not drawing too many conclusions from the narrow Conservative victory in Bromley and the Labour defeat in Blaenau Gwent (apologies for the mispelling earlier, BTW).

Labour got the majority down, but lost votes. It's more a case of people deserting the Indie candidate.

As for Bromley, Cameron can't call this a victory, but the Lib Dems can't either. It's at the end of the day, a by-election.

Labour's majority stays at 64/70 (if you count the SDLP).

Futurama is coming back

http://www.thefutoncritic.com/newswire.aspx?id=7177

Well, that was a surprise.

Blaneau Gwent and Bromley and Chislehurst

Two by-elections are coming up this Thursday.

Blaneau Gwent- sensationally won by Independent Peter Law in 2005 off Labour, this will probably be a close race. My prediction- Lab GAIN.

Bromley and Chislehurst- Conservative held seat until Eric Forth's recent death. Important test for the Tories. My prediction- Con HOLD.

England 1-0 Ecuador

Well, we won, due to a brilliant Beckham free kick and Ashley Cole's sprinting ability.

I'm no expert on football- I can't explain the offside rule for a start, but I do know when things are going right (i.e. we've got the ball and it's in their half).

By the way, have you noticed the stars on some of the countries' shirts? England has one, Germany three, Argentina two. Since Brazil seem to have five, I'm guessing its the number of times they've won.

I'm back

For personal reasons, I haven't posted here for a while. Now I'm back and should carry on as normal (whatever that is), if God wills it.

I watched the latest Doctor Who episode last night and have to say it was the best of the second series. I won't spoil it for you.

England are playing Ecuador in half an hour's time. I hope we don't get beaten (we haven't been playing too well).

24 is nearing the end of Season 5, which has been an all round better one than Season 4. Still can't make one plot last for 24 hours though...

Al, you will always remain welcome to post here.

(Edit- Fear Her is my favourite of Series Two, not the whole new series, so I've changed the post to reflect that)