General Election: Post 3 - The landslide on 34% of the vote

We still have one seat left to declare, but that's not going to make much of a difference. Anyway, here are my thoughts in no particular order:

• My prediction for Labour's majority and vote share was too high; so was that of many others. On a uniform national swing, we would have been looking at a hung parliament.
• I suspect many Tories will be glad to have got 121 seats, but it was still a whooping for the ages. Close to half their vote and over two-thirds of their seats gone. 15 Cabinet Ministers ousted as well, but our Portillo moment has to be Liz Truss losing her seat and leaving her count without a concession speech. Which I was asleep for...
• The Lib Dems actually exceeded my prediction by at least one seat. 71 seats is their best result ever, but their vote share was well below the 22.0% they got in 2005 under Charles Kennedy. Lot of tactical voting there.
• The SNP are likely at 10 seats at best; a massive collapse which probably puts independence on the backburner for at least the rest of the decade.
• Reform got 5 seats, in range of my prediction, along with a vote share that outdid the Lib Dems. Those sort of parties generally do much better under PR as they tend to have their votes widely spread out. A lot of second places though and they helped Labour over the line in many seats by the amount they took off the Tories.
• Corbyn retained his seat against expectations. There were also four more independents who won over Gaza and another won in North Down over opposition to the NI Protocol. The former and Corbyn might want to team up to form their own group, because I believe it would get them short money.
• George Galloway lost his seat and showed even less class than Liz Truss by not even going to the count.
• Four MPs for the Greens; they concentrated their resources on winnable seats.
• Levelling Up remains a thing, sadly. Changing the signs would be expensive.
• Sir Keir is setting expectations early, but he will need to deliver in a reasonable time. The 2025 local elections, which will see protest votes, will be a big challenge.
• The overall future for the Tories really depends on their next leader. They lost a lot of votes over their immigration failures, but someone like Kemi Badenoch will have problems with people who went for Labour or the Lib Dems.

General Election 2024: Post 2 - Prediction

OK, we are now two days away from the election and here are my predictions:

• Labour will get a majority of between 200 to 225 seats, but on a vote share noticeably lower than Blair's 1997 victory. Maybe 38%.
• The Conservatives will stay above the psychologically important 100 seat level, but not by a massive amount. A bunch of Cabinet minsters will lose their seats and we may well have another Portillo Moment.
• The Lib Dems will get between 60 and 70 seats.
• The SNP will no longer be the majority party among Scottish MPs.
• Reform will get 5 to 7 MPs, one of them being Nigel Farage.
• Jeremy Corbyn will not retain his seat as an independent.
• The Greens will have at least two MPs.
• Some special arrangements are going to be needed for "pairing" in the Commons due to the sheer number of Labour MPs.
• There will no longer be a Department of Levelling Up. That brand will be consigned to history.

General Election 2024: Post 1

I must admit that I haven't been following this that closely. Being in full-time employment and with a bunch of other stuff to do has rather limited my time.

It's clear from this that the Tories are going to lose and lose heavily. Going out of power after 14 years would be expected anyway, although their government and this last Parliament in particular have been a shambles of massive proportions. Sunak has been the best PM of the last three and that's damning with faint praise; his early departure from Normandy will be mentioned in his obituary, I'd say.

I don't detect a massive deal of enthusiasm for Labour. Certainly I don't have it myself. I would have liked to see more of a move back towards the EU and a softer tone on immigration. Fiscal circumstances are cited as the reason for a lot of restraint - the Tories have saddled us with some massive debt levels - but I get a feeling the party could be bolder. I also wonder just how many actual votes they'll get.

The Lib Dems will probably do quite well - maybe even recover to their 2000s level of support and seats. But they are not going to get near to power for a good while.

Reform will have a strong turnout, but their votes will be thinly spread. In time, they may replace the Tories as the main right-wing party, which is arguably a case of be careful what you wish for.

In any event, we're going to have some real challenges in the next few years. Starmer may be a bit dull, but dull is better than Boris Johnson by a long chalk.