Some random thoughts on Brexit

1. The EU27 cannot allow a half way successful Brexit because it undermines the entire project by giving a massive boost to other anti-EU movements. Some Eurosceptic groups would move to full 'Exit' if it worked for the UK.
2. The EU similarly cannot compromise freedom of movement if it is to survive in the medium term. In the long term, FOM may be what does it in. Goods quickly disappear. People stay around for decades and while immigration may have a positive effect on the UK overall, many people do not see it that way.
3. Accepting freedom of movement would be seen by many British people as a betrayal of the referendum result.
4. We should have come up with a more acceptable plan before triggering Article 50.
5. A No Deal Brexit, if it is bad as people predict, cannot hold for more than a few months without a climbdown or a compromise. We have become too tightly integrated for No Deal to work.
6. Brexit will harm our economy and Vote Leave should have the intellectual honesty to admit that.
7. May's failure to gain an overall majority in 2017 has cost her big time - if she'd gained a majority of 100+, she would have a lot more political capital.
8. Remain need a better argument for staying in the EU than Project Fear... because if it is in anyway better than they predict, then their main weapon loses its use.
9. Our WW2 myth is badly affecting our decision making. Most of those involved in the war are now dead, so people have this not entirely correct view of what it was like and how we won.
10. Don't troll people you're negotiating with. That means you, Mr. Tusk.

Brexit Phase 1 agreement

So I've had a look at the understanding reached on the 'divorce bill'. Here are my thoughts:

• Protecting the rights of EU citizens already here is important, asking them to apply for permanent residency is an inconvenience, but a necessary one so we know who has a right to live here.
• The Common Travel Area cannot be eliminated in the British Isles anyway, it's been there for too long. Customs checks are impractical - but perhaps there could be a 'clearing house' system allowing for bulk payments each quarter?
• Any trade deal will likely involve us making some payments. There is no such thing as a free lunch in these matters.
• The UK should adopt standards for goods equal to or better than the current EU ones. That is effective regulatory equivalence while not tying ourselves to the single market rules if we don't want that; some goods might have to be labelled differently when rules diverge.
• This could still all go pear-shaped.

Vote Leave's attempt to have its cake and eat ot

Vote Leave, the official 'Brexit' campaign, wants us to have all the benefits of the EU without 'paying' for it, i.e. not contributing towards the budget and not allowing freedom of movement.

Do you honestly think that the EU will allow a 'free rider' in their single market? I don't.

EU renegotiation

I am in favour of continued membership of the EU. I believe that our membership benefits our economy and our place in the world. While not a perfect organisation, it is frequently maligned unfairly.

Cameron's renegotiation is at heart a selfish move to protect our country at the expense of millions of poorer people in Europe. People come here because this is a good country to live in and they can earn far more than in their own country. We should be working together to improve the lives of all Europeans, not engaging in discriminatory moves. Also, a benefits ban can have its own problems. What if someone comes here to work and then gets into a serious accident making them need disability benefit?

I'd like that to be clearer and have exceptions... but the way this government has been treating people on benefits doesn't fill me with confidence.

Nor am I confident that REMAIN will win the referendum, sadly.

Local and European elections 2014

The strong UKIP showing in the local elections and their triumph in the EU elections should be a wake-up call to all the other parties; we need to take this party very seriously and actively work to expose their damaging world view and policies. While they are impacting the Tory vote more than the Labour one, it is still hurting us - UKIP were basically responsible for Labour only ending up with one councillor in Havering.

Labour's performance in the locals was good, but could have been better; while we're still on course for at least largest party, we need to make more effort at connecting with people. It's not going to be easy, as we're still deeply associated with the last recession and "failures" on immigration, but it needs to be done.

It's not time to panic, but we should not be complacent.

Orange Revolution II: The Empire Gets Struck Again

When members of the public are freely strolling around the residence of a country's now former President, it is safe to say that a revolution has occurred.

It's happened in Ukraine.

Viktor Yanukovych is gone. His reign is over and with reports that his attempts to flee the country have been stopped, I would not be surprised if he was formally indicted in the next couple of days.

It has not been a bloodless revolution - and it could still get bloody - but the people of Ukraine now have a second chance to develop a genuine, effective democracy in their country after the failure of the 2004 Orange Revolution to deliver on its hopes let Yanukovych back in the first place.

Tomorrow we see the closing of the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia. Today, Russia's playing of the geopolitical game saw them get a penalty... and this is speed skating.

European Union wins the Nobel Peace Prize

BBC News Report

I can see why, although the number of arguments it has probably started means the award isn't 100% deserved (although it's a better candidate than Barack Obama, who won it in 2009).

On the whole, I've got to say the EU has been a very good thing for Europe - the Schengen agreement certainly allowed me to spend more time in Estonia last month.

Eurovision 2012

If we want to win Eurovision, we're clearly not going the right way about it.

All in all, this was a pretty dire contest - not only did it over-run by ten minutes, most of the songs were pretty forgettable. Mind you, Graham Norton has firmly established himself as a successor to Sir Terry Wogan.

The BNP did not do the research on other aspects too.

Jams has the details.

I had a BNP leaflet through my door today and that picture was on it.

That's not the only error either. The BNP apparently does not know the difference between an immigrant and an asylum seeker.

An immigrant is someone coming here because they think their life will be better.

An asylum seeker is someone coming here because they know that if they stay, their life will either get worse or end. They want to be protected.

Now, I'm barring comments from this one, because I don't want gratuitous insults and flaming from BNP people.

Farage and UKIP

I caught a bit of the UKIP Party Political Broadcast a couple of nights back.

The UKIP leader was speaking in a manner that I found rather uncomfortable, stating that Britain should leave the EU because our money was going to the states of the former Soviet bloc, who were only joining for subsidies and new infrastructure.

Mr. Farage, are you at all aware of the history of Communism? Or that these states are pretty poor, had their economies ruined by Soviet rule and are suffering because of the credit crunch? Or the principle of helping your neighbour out?

People need to examine UKIP throughly before voting for them.