Clacton and Heywood

UKIP has gained its first elected MP; the party switcher Douglas Carswell getting elected by a five-figure majority for the Eurosceptic party.

In addition, Labour got its majority in Heywood and Middleton slashed to 617, but did manage to retain the seat.

One is always in danger of drawing too much from a by-election, especially in a place like Clacton; very white, in coastal Essex; a high-profile by-election of an ex-Tory defector. A big blow to the Conservatives sure, but how big was Carswell's personal vote?

Heywood is of a bit more concern to Labour... but the close result's impact is diminished by the fact that only 36% of the electorate turned out - it was 57% at the 2010 general election. The casual Labour supporters assumed it was safe and didn't turn up.

Not a reason to panic, but we do need to focus on GOTV efforts next year; UKIP are the beneficiaries of apathy.

UK local elections 2013

32 of 34 councils have declared in these elections and while Labour didn't do as well as it could have, we were the only party (apart from No Overall Control) to gain councils.

UKIP's record performance is worthy of note, but one should not draw too many conclusions from what is basically a vote of the Tory heartlands - the major cities were not up, including London (I didn't have a vote this time, but I will next year).

Farage and UKIP

I caught a bit of the UKIP Party Political Broadcast a couple of nights back.

The UKIP leader was speaking in a manner that I found rather uncomfortable, stating that Britain should leave the EU because our money was going to the states of the former Soviet bloc, who were only joining for subsidies and new infrastructure.

Mr. Farage, are you at all aware of the history of Communism? Or that these states are pretty poor, had their economies ruined by Soviet rule and are suffering because of the credit crunch? Or the principle of helping your neighbour out?

People need to examine UKIP throughly before voting for them.