The first trillionaire in history

Which just goes to show you that money can't buy you taste, humanity or popularity.

Also, Elon, you can't take it with you, even if it was actual cash rather than just shares in a company that is reliant on its systems actually working.

Murder in Minneapolis

No sense in mincing words here. ICE is rotten to the core, an army of masked thugs with no willingness to abide by the rules of common decency.

It needs to be abolished and those in charge of it criminally investigated.

Enforcing borders is important, but it must be done humanely. ICE is incapable of doing that.

The return of Donald Trump

Well, he's back for another four years. Unless he drops dead first, which is possible. I want to wait for all the final numbers to come in, but my initial thought is that there is a danger of overcomplicating this election.

"It's the economy, stupid" goes a long way to explaining the results, frankly.

As for Trump, we're about to see how strongly the guardrails cope with his crazy ideas.

US Presidential Election 2024 Prediction

We are nearing the end of an election campaign even nastier than the last one. Donald Trump and his Republicans have engaged in the sort of rhetoric that the Nazis used and they're increasingly not able to hide it.

Kamala Harris, thrust into the nomination after the Biden campaign collapsed, has done a remarkable job in the circumstances, although admittedly many are not entirely happy about her lack of a clear stance on Gaza. She might be clearer on that once election is secured.

The election looks very close, but one of course must remember a little thing called margin of error; a blowout in the swing states is entirely possible with a normal polling error.

The Trump campaign seems to be having some major issues with its ground game; they also seem to be setting the "information environment" (thank you Institute for the Study of War for that) to claim election fraud after any loss. The insult comic at the Madison Square Garden rally seems to have invoked real fury among Puerto Ricans.

Harris has an advantage in enthusiasm, particularly among women and older voters. The Democrats are seem to be at just the right level of confidence to avoid complacency.

So, here is how I think it is going to go:

Prediction Map

• Harris wins the popular vote by two to three points.
• Harris wins six of the seven swing states, coming close in North Carolina. 303 electoral votes will be three fewer than Joe Biden got in 2020.
• With the rise of early voting on both sides, the 'red mirage' will be less prominent than 2020, but still there nonetheless.
• The Democrats will take the House, the Republicans the Senate. This will mean more Congressional gridlock.
• Trump will "declare victory" on Wednesday morning (UK time) and scream fraud later.
• The National Guard are going to be needed at some point, sadly.

But of course, I could be wrong and it's going to be a long couple of days, I would say.

Joe Biden

It's starting to look increasingly like Joe Biden will have to pull out of his re-election bid, with reports that Barack Obama, very much the most respected man in the Democratic Party, is privately expressing his doubts over Biden's ability to defeat Donald Trump.

Biden's age is starting to catch up with him. His memory looks like it is beginning to go and he's having problems even reading stuff from an autocue now. His debate performance was by all accounts disastrous; Trump was an open goal and he kicked the ball into the stands. He's been pretty sheltered from direct public scrutiny in terms of exposure to the press.

At the moment, Trump does not have an insurmountable polling lead; he is still inside the margin of error. But the Democrats need to gain in the polls and Biden staying on the ticket will no longer help that, due to the clear questions being raised about his ability to do another four years.

Personally, I have real concerns about his ability to even live another four years if he got re-elected. He's been much better than Trump, but it's clear that he now needs to gracefully retire.

Donald Trump's last trump

In just under three days' time, Donald Trump will cease to be President of the United States, after a term of utter failure. He has been even worse than feared for the country, with his mishandling of the pandemic resulting in the worse mass death in the US in a single year since its creation.

And he topped it off with basically inciting an insurrection by refusing to accept that he had lost and claiming voter fraud with no actual evidence. His second impeachment is right and he should be investigated criminally in connection with this.

Good riddance.

Donald gets Trumped - thoughts on the results of the US Presidential Election 2020

It's all over bar the shouting; Trump's lawsuits are going nowhere due to the fact that he can't actually provide any evidence for his wild and crazy claims of voter forms.

So, some thoughts on how this has all turned out.

1. It's a fairly standard election in some regards - unpopular incumbent doesn't get re-elected.
2. Of course, it wasn't in others. Being conducted in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic fundamentally changed the way people campaigned. Biden was essentially confined to his home, not holding the kinds of big rallies that Trump did (and which left a trail of virus cases in their wake). This arguably helped him as it limited the risk of him making damaging gaffes.
3. Trump getting Covid-19 was very much the "October surprise"; the way he handled it was shocking even for those used to him being awful. It's very likely the bad handling of this pandemic and the huge numbers of American deaths that result will be his biggest legacy; far more than getting America into any disastrous overseas wars, he has brought the equivalent of five Vietnams to American soil.
4. The record levels of mail-in ballots also led to a record turnout - this is likely to become routine for many voters as it is a much easier process than long queues at a polling station. It also was something a lot harder to intimidate against.
5. The Georgia Senate run-offs will be pretty close and who can turn out their voters better will ultimately win there.
6. 538 were correct in that Biden could survive a 2016-size polling error, which is basically what we got. It's looking like Republicans were under sampled, with a real reluctance to engage with pollsters by hardcore Trump supporters and Democrats being very keen to make their feelings known.
7. There were a fair number of ticket-splitters; those who voted Biden for President and Republican down-ballot. Biden outran lower-ballot Democrats across the board, essentially meaning that he had no coattails. With a 50-50 Senate the best possible outcome for them, Democrats have some cause for concern.
8. Taking the "Latino vote" for granted - indeed assuming there is a monolithic Latino vote in the first place - was a big mistake for the Democrats and could have cost them a closer election. Texas is now a swing state, but it's unlikely to flip unless there is a seriously popular Democrat running.
9. "Law and order" remains a strong driver of Republican turnout; riots scare voters.
10. Biden is very likely a one-term President due to his age. Kamala Harris has four years to work on her overall public image as Vice President if she wants a chance at the top job come 2024.
11. Trump will probably try to run in 2024 if he is capable of doing so; even being imprisoned doesn't legally stop you as Eugene Debs demonstrated in 1920.
12. Biden is going to need a lot of political skill to get any major policies passed in a divided Congress; he arguably has it.

It's going to be somewhat of a return to normality. Only somewhat though.

Coronavirus #19: Trump in hospital

I'm not taking anything the White House takes about Trump's condition at face value. I believe he has it, but I'm wondering just how bad it actually is as you don't go from positive to hospital that quickly.

Also, the "72 hours" comment at the press conference today raises massive questions about what Trump knew and when, because he was campaigning on the days before Friday.

US Presidential Election 2020

We're now just over two months from the US Presidential Election; although many will soon start voting with the use of absentee ballots likely to be extensive due to Covid-19.

Trump is going to try to use every legal and semi-legal trick to win - if he loses, he will claim voter fraud. He was even claiming it after he won, stating that he had actually won the popular vote when he didn't.

Biden is in a better position than Clinton was at this point with a significant lead. Trump is the worst position for an incumbent in decades and it could well get worse for him. He could somehow eke out a win, but I doubt it.

In any event, it's likely to be messy in US politics for quite a while.

Bern Notice - or the US Democratic nomination process

It's looking increasingly likely that Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic candidate for President against Donald Trump in November and this contest will be interesting to put it mildly.

While Sanders will be the furthest left Democratic candidate since at least George McGovern, he will be going up against a scandal-tarred Trump whose approval rating, unlike Nixon's (whose slump came in his second term) is in negative territory. He's also polling well.

Sanders isn't Jeremy Corbyn - he doesn't have some of Corbyn's toxic associations for one thing. Also, with the US political system as it is, he will be likely heavily constrained by Congress in any domestic policy - in the way Trump kind of is. So businesses won't necessarily be as scared of him as a PM Corbyn.

I think there is a very good chance we end up with a Jewish President next year, although it ultimately depends on the economy. With Covid-19 in particular, there's a chance we could be in a recession come November.

The Mueller Report

I'd very much like to see the whole thing (or as much as gets released) before I can fully conclude on it, but I can believe that much of the Russian interference operation was conducted independently with the aim of weakening Clinton and electing Trump, whose views were much closer to the Russian world view.

Not exonerating Trump of obstruction of justice is the key finding, but I'd like to see why a decision wasn't made to charge him. If it was made by the Attorney General himself, then... well... the corruption is obvious.

The end of the beginning: The Trump situation

Donald Trump is facing legal challenges on multiple fronts: the Special Counsel investigation (which has yet to fully report), the Cohen investigation where he is already a non-charged co-conspirator and the New York investigation. There is no way he can shut any of these down now without making the situation worse for himself.

In chess, this is called zugzwang, with any move possible making the player's position worse. Trump's only reasonable move is to resign in return for no criminal charges and Donald Trump is not a reasonable man.

With mid-terms less than two months away, a Democratic takeover of the House looks very likely and the Senate is up for grabs. If the former happens, an impeachment is certain and the Republicans will have no good options - they can force Trump to resign with the loss of much of their base or keep him in power, with the loss of much of their base. While Trump is somewhat compos mentis, the 25th Amendment is not a realistic option.

We're probably stuck with Trump for the rest of this year. 2019 is a different question.

US immigration policy under Donald Trump...

Is utterly vile when it's not being an utter waste of money:

• Wanting to spend $25bn on a wall when most illegal immigration is people overstaying visas
• Comparing countries to toilet pits and then not wanting people coming from those countries to seek a better life
• Putting children in conditions that you wouldn't keep convicted murderers in; with no books, toys or anything like that
• Not actually doing anything to improve the lives of peoples in countries like Honduras and El Salvador
• Making dog whistles about MS-13
• Not realising that without these people, the US is going to have a labour shortage

Also, "womp womp" is just a whole new level of sick. That guy should never be allowed back on a TV show until he apologises and donates a big sum to a refugee charity.

In which everyone commentates on a game being played in the dark

The ongoing Trump situation is one where a lot of people are making guesses as to what they think is going to happen. There's an expression: "These who talk don't know and those who know don't talk".

We don't know what exactly is going through the mind of the key players involved: Robert Mueller, Mike Pence, Trump himself, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell. The GOP's seeming complicity in what is going on is more often than not silence. Nunes is doing his own thing with his failure of a memo, but most Republicans aren't saying anything at all.

We don't know what happens if Mueller suggests Trump gets impeached - or if he'll just indict him anyway. We don't know if Trump will fire him.

And we don't even know what happens if Trump is removed from office. It could be months before he ends up behind bars, if at all. And if Trump's supporters are rabid now...

It's a rather concerning situation, all told.

Net neutrality

On 7 December, the US Federal Communications Commission is likely to vote to remove "net neutrality", the requirement that internet service providers treat all traffic coming through them equally and do not discriminate for or against a particular traffic source with different speeds.

This has got parts of the Internet, Reddit in particular, up in arms. With internet provision in the US largely restricted to four big providers (Comcast, AT&T, Verizon & Time Warner), with some areas only having access to one, they are concerned this will lead to sites that particular ISP doesn't like being throttled or even blocked, especially if the site doesn't pay what the ISP wants. Netflix has had this problem in the past. With US internet costs pretty high as is (like $120 a month) this is something that they are not happy about.

I don't want this to go - it won't personally affect me and there doesn't seem to be any danger of it happening in the UK, Brexit or otherwise. It will be bad for many start-ups - survivable, but still bad.

However, I sincerely hope that social media can also get as worked up about issues more important to all our future than internet speeds. Like climate change.

US Mid-terms 2014

So the Republicans have won control of both Houses of Congress in the mid-term elections. Here wer go for yet another two years with no proper budget in the US... perhaps we'll even have another shutdown.

While the Republicans have been highly obstructive, Obama has been a disappointment to say the least. His only achievement of note? Obamacare and that's not all it's cracked up to be (there has been an increase in premiums for many). The Russians have Crimea, the Arab Spring has produced Islamic State and firearm ownership is on the increase.

Well at least it's a good time to make cannabis; more states are legalising it following ballots yesterday.

Voting Rights Act and DOMA

The US Supreme Court has made two key decisions on legal cases that will have big implications for the US.

Firstly, it has struck down Section 4 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act as unconstitutional on the grounds that the criteria used for deciding which voting rules need federal clearance is out-of-date. A legally correct decision, but the state of US politics at the moment means it will be a while before new criteria can be made law - and discriminatory legislation could still be put into place.

In better news, the Defense of Marriage Act, that barred same-sex couples from getting federal benefits, has been struck down - the Obama administration wasn't defending it either. Now it is a case of ensuring that people can marry freely across the Union.

Newtown and gun control

It's been a week since the school shootings in the US that left 26 people dead at the hands of a lone gunman. Since then, Obama has called for the reintroduction of the assault weapons ban, allowed to lapse in 2004.

Guns in themselves do not kill people, but they make it easier - and the presence of a firearm in a tense situation can cause it escalate into a lethal one. The US has the highest gun ownership in the world - and the highest murder rate of any advanced country.

Yet the NRA wants more of them. Arming teachers or school staff will just provide more ammo for another gunman (and they nearly all are male), because he'll just shoot that person and take their weapons.

The National Rifle Assocation? More like the Not-in-Reality Association.

US Elections 2012 - my prediction

I predict that Barack Obama will be re-elected with a 1 to 2 percent popular vote lead and between 300 and 340 Electoral College Votes.

The Democrats will retain the Senate, the Republicans the House.

Obama vs. Romney: Debate 3

It's only two weeks until the election and I'm glad it's that close - the rhetoric is starting to get boring now. This debate in particular went into that territory at times as attack lines got trotted out again and again by both candidates.


Bob Schieffer did an OK job as moderator, but really should have brought both candidates back to foreign policy, as they tended to go off onto the economy a good deal.

Mitt Romney's problem is that on the key foreign policy issues he either has the same view as President Obama or is on the wrong side of public opinion - regardless of your views re going into Afghanistan or Iraq, it is clear that these wars have not gone as well for the USA as they could have done. He sounded presidential to start off with, but towards the end he was just sounding hollow.

Obama again won this one - I don't agree with all his foreign policy views, but he came across very convincing and knew his policy brief well. Missed an opportunity to deploy a "You didn't build that" zinger on Romney in the discussion on Massachusetts education policy.

Third debates don't really as matter as much in the whole run of things, nor does foreign policy. This said, Romney needed a win and he didn't get one. My prediction for an Obama victory on 6 November remains unchanged.