Coronavirus #36 - past the Omicron peak

It is looking like Omicron has very peaked in the UK, with recorded case numbers coming down pretty rapidly over the last week. It is likely that this won't be the last wave of Covid infections here, but we're getting better at treating this all the time and I'm not sure how much more evolution the virus can do considering its pretty contagious as is.

In any event we will need to be vigiliant.

I've been following the developing scandal about parties in Downing Street like everyone else here. There seems to have been serial breaches going on here and Boris Johnson should have been aware of what has happening in his own offices. It's time for him to resign.

Coronavirus #35 - The Omicron lockdown?

With the rate of Omicron's growth and its ability to get round the vaccines to some extent, the ultimate question is just how much severe illness it causes compared with Delta. The evidence from South Africa is that it isn't as bad by quite some margin, but it remains to be seen just how applicable that is with other countries.

A number of nations are implementing restrictions already to slow the impact of this; people in other places are adjusting their plans to minimise their risk. I was going to see the new Spiderman film yesterday, but I decided against it in the current circumstances.

We may end seeing further restrictions after Christmas. A lot depends on how this week - with the schools off, remember - goes, particularly with hospital admissions.

Coronavirus #34 - The Omicron Factor

So, we're back to mandatory masks in public transport and shops, along with self-isolation for all close contacts of those with this new variant. As yet, we don't know how much Omicron can beat the vaccine - I suspect it might allow for the vaccinated to be infected but not hospitalised. But better safe than sorry.

Coronavirus #33: Masks

If you cannot keep your distance in an enclosed environment, it is best to wear a mask with all the Covid going around at the moment. It's not easy, but it is less hard than going through Covid.

Coronavirus #32: Anti-vaxxers

Those who are refusing to have their Covid vaccines are putting themselves and others at real risk. If I was in a care home, I would not want any carer who come into contact with me not to be jabbed.

Personally, if you won't take the jab, which is safe, why are you in that profession?

(For the record, I am already double-jabbed)

Coronavirus #31: To mask or not to mask

With increasing cases of the highly contagious Delta variant in the UK, there is concern that making masks voluntary on 19 July will simply make things worse.

Masks are more about protecting others from expelled virus than protecting yourself, but their impact is limited and they are not themselves a substitute for other measures like test-and-trace, self-isolation and physical distancing where possible. From my own observation, a lot fewer people are wearing masks than used to be and I am sure many of them don't have exemptions.

Public compliance and goodwill have largely gone; Matt Hancock's antics were a final straw, I would wager. 

For my part, I intend to do as Professor Chris Whitty has advised after the 19th; I will wear a mask when asked or when I can't physically keep my distance from others. I'm double jabbed anyway and also do twice-weekly lateral flow tests, which I doubt is common.

Coronavirus #30 - The final unlock?

This weekend, the government will decide whether to go to Stage 4 of the roadmap and eliminate nearly all the remaining domestic restrictions, although some like the self-isolation policy for red and amber list countries will almost certainly stay for a while - I can see an exemption for the fully vaccinated incorporated at some point there.

With the current case trajectory and a slight increase in hospital admissions, caused by the more infectious 'Delta' variant as we are now calling it, I feel there are grounds for a two week daily to 'Freedom Day' to double jab as many of the most vulnerable as possible.

Coronavirus #29: Exiting Lockdown 3

Had my first proper haircut since December today and next week I am taking a train into work for some stuff that I really can't deal with at home. I am particularly looking forward to eating in a restaurant again.

We're in a lot better place now with our vaccine rollout; while there are still concerns about the variants, none of them currently truly beats the vaccine. We need to be vigilant, but we can be confident - at present - that we are slowly coming out of this.

Coronavirus #28: Vaccine passports

I would support a limited use of vaccine passports while Covid-19 is still a significant thing in this country - which it currently. Definitely for foreign travel and big events, but not for pubs and shops. I also don't think it is really that discriminatory considering that we will all be getting vaccinated in the next few months.

I also see that the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab won't be recommended for under 30s going forward; the risk of the blood clots for that group is higher than being hospitalised for Covid-19. Which makes sense. Now we need more carrots to encourage people to get vaccinated - I would personally eliminate testing requirements for those with both doses.

Still hoping to go abroad this year, but Europe does need to hurry up with its jabbing...

Coronavirus #27: The variants

The UK's case rate appears to be levelling off, with an increase in cases among schoolchildren offsetting falls in the wider population as the vaccine rollout continues, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than previously.

There is a concern about variants that might "escape" the vaccine and so render us back to square one. At the moment, these concerns appear to be somewhat overblown. While some variants do seem to be less impacted by the vaccine, none of them seem to be completely successful in escaping it to the point they are causing hospital admissions among the vaccinated.

This doesn't mean we should throw caution to the wind and we need to remain vigilant, but frightening people unnecessarily is something that the media in particular should not be doing. I somehow doubt they'll stop though, sadly.

Coronavirus #26 - PTSD

This is our 'world war' - the impact on this country in terms of death is worse than the Blitz was. A lot of people have had loved ones taken before their time and much of the rest of us have endured months of separation, along with continuing uncertainty.

We are all going to need a lot of help to recovery psychologically from all this. Physical help will also be needed for all those with "long Covid" when it's seriously long-term as opposed to a few months of smell and taste problems.

I seriously do not want another lockdown as long as I live.

Coronavirus #25 - Ending restrictions

Many of us, after eleven months of restrictions on our daily lives due to this pandemic are getting impatient for an end to it all. I know I am; video meetings and home working have completely lost their appeal. Masks are unpleasant and rob people of their humanity; I appreciate their necessity and do wear one, but I can't say I like it.

Ultimately an end to restrictions should be governed by the science - and that's all the science. Not just epidemiology, but mental health, behavioural science and the economy. These necessary restrictions to protect the NHS and save lives should last as long as needed - and no longer.

We will likely not be able to eliminate Covid-19 entirely, so restrictions should be minimised once the most vulnerable are vaccinated. We should still keep a wary eye out for mutations, but the media should not inflate every mutation to being a vaccine beater when they almost certainly won't be. The newspapers have a lot to answer for their role in causing fear during this pandemic.

I look forward to this being a bad memory.

Coronavirus #24: Enter the vaccines

There are signs of us turning the tide in this pandemic; the recent data on numbers of new cases is suggesting that they are starting to drop and Tier 4/lockdown has been having an effect.

The reason that is arguably not having as much of an effect is that we're facing increasing non-compliance with restrictions from a significant minority of society, who are happily bending or outright breaking the rules. Some of this is down to outright exhaustion with all the rules that for many don't seem to make a huge amount of sense, arbitrary enforced and broken by the so-called great and good. For others, it's belief in dangerous conspiracy theories and misinformation, while others are just selfish.

Ultimately, the vaccine rollout is the best way of getting out of this situation; with around 2.5 million having had their first dose as of time of writing. We may well get a million jabs done this week and every one will help, especially if it does indeed stop transmission. We need to go even faster; three million a week should be our goal.

But we still have a difficult few weeks ahead of us - the NHS remains under great strain with around 35,000 hospitalised with Covid-19 and around 750 deaths a day.

So, people need to heed the restrictions and avoid unnecessary social contact, wear a mask etc. It will keep the numbers of people who get this before they can be vaccinated down and so save many more lives.

Coronavirus #23 - Real pressure on the NHS

New records are now being recorded frequently for detected coronavirus cases in the UK and while we are possibly not at the real levels of infection that we had in the first wave, we are definitely heading that way. Even Tier 4 and the schools currently being closed - they should not go back at all on Monday - does not seem to be keeping R below one. A significant minority have stopped complying with the rules and the more infectious strain is making things harder.

The NHS is now under real pressure and it may well end up overloaded at least on a regional level. The only way we can reduce the hospitalisations and deaths now is to vaccinate as fast as possible.

Coronavirus #22: Tier 4

Well, that's Christmas pretty much cancelled for much of the country. Frankly the hope shouldn't have been held out in the first place.

The new more infectious strain is concerning and we now need to vaccinate as fast as possible to get out of this.

Coronavirus #21 - The end of the beginning

We have a vaccine. In fact, we are likely to have more than one, as we're waiting for the Moderna and AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccines to report back, which they should do in the next week or two.

The main challenge now will the logistics of rolling out the vaccine to millions. This will take a couple of months and the winter will be challenging.

This why it is important to keep wearing a mask and doing the other things. Don't be the last person to die in this war.

Coronavirus #20: On circuit breakers

With cases continuing to rise in the UK, calls have been made for a temporary "circuit-breaker" lockdown to 'reset' the pandemic back a month and create an opportunity to fix Test and Trace. Here are my thoughts on this: 

• I am not sure how fixable Test and Trace actually is; there is a fundamental lack of engagement with the system from much of the public. But there are things that can be done.
• We need to stop cases rebounding after any circuit breaker ends.
• There are highly different rates of infection in different parts of the country, although there are rising cases in all of them.
• A circuit breaker in the worst affected areas would be justified at the present time, especially with Halloween approaching. However, how much compliance there would be with it will be is unclear.
• Money will be key in securing compliance; I am not sure how affordable this is considering the damage to the economy from the national lockdown.
• Shutting schools would likely get R down below 1 on its own. A four-week half-term, with subsequent juggling of the rest of the school year to catch-up, would majorly reduce cases, with the added bonus that it would force many people to work from home.
• A circuit breaker over Christmas would be very unpopular. One just before, however might just fly.

I would support a circuit breaker over October half-term, but we need something for beyond that.

Coronavirus #19: Trump in hospital

I'm not taking anything the White House takes about Trump's condition at face value. I believe he has it, but I'm wondering just how bad it actually is as you don't go from positive to hospital that quickly.

Also, the "72 hours" comment at the press conference today raises massive questions about what Trump knew and when, because he was campaigning on the days before Friday.

Coronavirus #18: The long game

We are likely to be at this whole social distancing for a while yet. The vaccines are making good progress and I think we will see at least one approved in time for Christmas.

However, roll out will take a good while longer as at-risk groups are rightly prioritised. I can see March before I can get a jab - and I will get one - with social distancing measures lifted gradually over the course of Q1 2021. At which point patience will have run out - it's already getting pretty thin.

Getting the world vaccinated will likely take longer; the manufacturing capacity just isn't there. It may easily be 2023 or 2024 before we get global 'herd immunity'.

During which time people will continue to get this illness and die of it. The WHO representative who estimated two million global deaths yesterday is being sadly realistic.

Coronavirus #17 - Circuit breakers

With more cases being identified and R now back above one, calls are being made for further restrictions and the government is considering a "circuit breaker" period of heavy restrictions during an extended half-term in October. Or earlier.

This - or even a full lockdown - is ultimately only a time buying measure. It may reduce the virus levels, but as soon as you lift one restriction too many, the virus starts coming back again. We have arguably done that since schools reopened.

Any circuit breaker period needs to be used to fix the wiring, such as ramping up test capacity and getting the tracing system sorted. This is easier said than done, although the app should help. I will definitely be installing it.

If we have to close something, I'd rather have closing pubs than a ban on socialising, but it needs to be based on the data.