22 September 2018

Some random thoughts on Brexit

  1. The EU27 cannot allow a half way successful Brexit because it undermines the entire project by giving a massive boost to other anti-EU movements. Some Eurosceptic groups would move to full 'Exit' if it worked for the UK.
  2. The EU similarly cannot compromise freedom of movement if it is to survive in the medium term. In the long term, FOM may be what does it in. Goods quickly disappear. People stay around for decades and while immigration may have a positive effect on the UK overall, many people do not see it that way.
  3. Accepting freedom of movement would be seen by many British people as a betrayal of the referendum result.
  4. We should have come up with a more acceptable plan before triggering Article 50.
  5. A No Deal Brexit, if it is bad as people predict, cannot hold for more than a few months without a climbdown or a compromise. We have become too tightly integrated for No Deal to work.
  6. Brexit will harm our economy and Vote Leave should have the intellectual honesty to admit that.
  7. May's failure to gain an overall majority in 2017 has cost her big time - if she'd gained a majority of 100+, she would have a lot more political capital.
  8. Remain need a better argument for staying in the EU than Project Fear... because if it is in anyway better than they predict, then their main weapon loses its use.
  9. Our WW2 myth is badly affecting our decision making. Most of those involved in the war are now dead, so people have this not entirely correct view of what it was like and how we won.
  10. Don't troll people you're negotiating with. That means you, Mr. Tusk.

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