Two years ago, I wrote this.
It was rather prescient in many ways, particularly the bit about conservatism. Obama's two years in office so far have been mixed at best. There's been the healthcare reforms, New START (stupid name for a treaty, IMO) and the repeal of DADT. However, there's been a distinct lack of progress in Afghanistan, unemployment remains high and much legislation had to be watered down.
It's not surprising that Obama suffered the biggest loss in mid-term elections since before the war. He needs to improve and seems to be doing so after the "shellacking" (as he termed it).
At the moment, I'm predicting Obama gets re-elected, but not in a landslide. There doesn't seem to be a stellar GOP candidate out there. I doubt Palin will get anywhere near the nomination.
Of course, I may be wrong.