Coming up in October

The 1st sees three elections- Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Brazil's first round. In Austria, it could be close, but the OVP will probably win. Bosnia is pretty important, according to some analysts, because of issues over secession. Lula will probably win again in Brazil.

The 7th has Latvia.

Belgian municipals on the 8th.

Ecuador on the 15th.

Bulgaria Presidency and a Panama Canal expansion referendum on the 22nd.

We finish on the 29th with a run-off in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Brazil's second round. Kabila will probably win in the DRC.

"You can't play politics with people's jobs"

Caught the end of Kinnock's 1985 conference speech on BBC Parliament- you know the one where he attacked Militant. Good speech, very good speech. I don't understand all the context, but clearly some of the audience wasn't happy with the bit about Manchester City Council (I can't recall a walkout under Blair).

You'd never hear Blair using the word "Comrades" now. Or "socialism" for that matter.

The Political Map of Europe

Here you go.

Any errors, let me know in the comments.

'Coming up in October' will be up tomorrow.

Blair's speech

Came in at about 56 minutes long in the end.

Some thoughts on it:

• Not much Lib Dem bashing. Then again, they're no longer the main threat, Cameron's Tories are.
• Section on foreign policy was good as always. Regardless of your views on Iraq to begin with, we cannot abandon them now.
• Some great stuff on Cameron. Easily the highlight of the speech.
• The 'Thank yous' were nice.
• Good defence of some of our more controversial policies. It's our values that need to be implemented ultimately, not certain policies. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter where the money comes from, provided its spent.
• Great listing of Labour's achievements.
• Brilliant line about wanting to be the first Labour leader to win three successive elections.
• Didn't endorse anyone for the leadership, but that's not a surprise.

It wasn't the best of speeches, but it was good. Well done, Tony. And thank you.

Thailand

As you've heard, there was a coup in Thailand earlier this week. Thaksin Sinawatra, the Thai PM was overthrown by the military while in New York for the UN General Assembly.

Regardless of what you think of Thaksin, his record and policies, a coup was not the right way to deal with him. The courts had already thrown out the last election and there was going to be another one. If the people wanted Thaksin out, they would have voted him out at that election. Now they won't get a chance to make their decision on him.

Instead, an illegitimate military regime will start the process that will lead to a new constitution and PM. That's not the way it should happen. Thaksin should be allowed back into power.

It's a good thing there were no shots fired in this. It's a bad thing this coup happened in the first place.

I hope Thailand returns to democracy in the near future.

Sweden

As you may know, Sweden held its general election today and the left lost. Perrson has resigned as PM.

Naturally, as a social democrat, I'm unhappy when any PES party loses an election. At least it wasn't that bad a loss.

Sometime before the end of this month, I'll post my "Political Map of Europe". However, can someone tell me whether Yuschenko is a left-winger or a right-winger?

"The next party conference in a couple of weeks will be my last party conference as party leader"

Well, no exact date (Blair will probably go when he feels like going- the big question is whether it's before the May elections), but Blair's made his committment now. I think it's fair to let the guy choose the date he goes- that's what he deserves after leading us to three consecutive victories.

I suppose the leadership race starts here, although it won't really kick until Blair sets a date.

Edit- When the ballot comes up, I'll probably vote for Brown and, if he runs, Straw for Deputy Leader.

Tony Blair's future

As you're probably aware, seven junior ministers, including Defence Minister Tom Watson, resigned today because Tony Blair hasn't named a date for when he's going to go. They had all signed the letter calling for Blair to set a date.

I'm not sure what to think about this whole business. It's just that this endless speculation over the leadership stops us from doing the job of governing effectively. Blair will go in his own time (and probably when we least expect it). He's already said he won't fight another election and that his successor will have plenty of time to govern. Let him decide how he wants to go, or if you want him to go now, challenge him for the leadership. Just do something instead of making statements. I just want this speculation to stop- it's annoying.

Your opinions are welcome in the comments box.

Podcasts and NationStates

The Labour Party now has a podcast (kudos to http://www.bloggers4labour.org for the tip). I haven't listened to it, but it just seems to be ministerial QandAs and speeches ATM. Perhaps Party HQ should get a prominent Labour celebrity (John O'Farrell anyone?) to do a weekly round of news and Tory-bashing. Don't forget the Tory bashing. Stick in some Liberal-bashing while you're at it. Maybe some competitions as well. We'll have to see.

I didn't get on the MAD Council, because it wasn't first come first served. I might challenge for a seat if a councillor does particularly little.

I'm still contributing to the Merit though, with a weekly article on NS news for InterMet. If you have any NS news, comment here.

If you want more info about the game, go to www.nationstates.net

Coming up in "Don't Know Much About This" September

10- Montenegro has its first post-independence election. Wiki has next to nothing on it.
17- Sweden. Close race likely between the two blocs. I'll say narrow centre-right victory.
22- Gambia- Probable APRC victory, but I don't really know any of the candidates.
26- Yemen. Probably going to be a rigathon for Ali Abdullah Saleh.
28- Zambia. Was close last time between the Movement for Multiparty Democracy and the United Party for National Development. Have no idea what it'll be like this time.

Ramble 4- Insert Quip Here

Watched the three-parter Murphy's Law this week. Not much to write home about. There's Dalizel and Pascoe (I think I've spelt that right) starting on Sunday.

Still not a huge amount going on the world. Iran's 'President' challenged America's President to a debate. It would have been an interesting spectacle, but the White House was right to refuse. It would given Ahmadinejad more legitimacy than he deserves.

I've applied to be an MAD Councillor at The Meritocracy. Should get in.

Tomorrow, I make my return to the forum at US Election Atlas as I said I would. With mid-terms coming up, it should be an interesting place to be.

I still haven't done my House and Governor Predictions. I'll get going on those starting tomorrow.

Ramble 3- Slow news week

It's a bit of a slow news week. Top story on the BBC is about the obesity report. That's not to say nothing is happening- Iraq is still plagued with problems, there's the usual crime stories- but there's nothing that's really got the news agenda buzzing. Everyone's on holiday and we can relax a little.

I've been busy this week having a go at a game I got in Smith's a while back- Lock On. As you may have guessed, it's a flight sim game. I've now spent several attempts trying to drop a bomb on a tank. It's not easy, especially when said bomb is not guided.

Stargate SG-1 has been cancelled. Having not yet seen any of Season 10 (it won't be on Sky for a while), I can't say whether it's got bad or not. It's been cancelled due to falling ratings (although Sci-Fi wouldn't admit that). Let's hope it gets picked up by another channel.

Tried and failed (thanks to a lot of abstentions) to get back into the Meritocratic Senate. I'll stick around, RP a bit, run for the City Council and apply again in a few months.

Back in the RRA and the ADN in NS as well. Not much going on there either.

Soon we'll be back into the maelstrom of the Conference season. But that can wait a couple of weeks.

Your thoughts?

Immigration

I got a UKIP leaflet through my letterbox this morning. On it, it states that "UKIP would reduce net immigration to zero".

This has a potential problem. As Britain's population ages, there are less people able to contribute to society through work. Reducing immigration would only worsen the dependency problem we are soon going to have.

Some other points. It's often claimed that immigrants are taking British jobs. In fact, they tend to do the jobs that British people don't want to do. And all of them contribute to a society in some way.

People come to Britain because we speak English as a national language. It's not like German or French is taught in schools in Romania, par exemple.

There's a nasty racist undertone to the whole anti-immigration business. UKIP, consciously or not, are playing on people's fears of their jobs being taken by foreign workers, who will (they claim) drive down wages. That's not an argument for reducing immigration, that's an argument for increasing the minimum wage.

As regards to multicultralism, what's wrong with it? We should celebrate diversity, not force people to give up their culture. If their practices are too far off mainstream or violate human rights, then there's an argument for banning them, but not for the sake of it. By the way, I do think that some anti-offensive measures are a bit silly.

Just out of curiousity, how would all those planning to retire to Spain react if Spain banned immigration from Britain?

I'll disable comments on this one.

Ramble 2

The ninth (or is it tenth?) series of Silent Witness concluded last night. It's been a decidingly mixed season and definitely not one of the show's best. Best episode was probably the downright weird "Supernova", with a very clever solution. None of the main characters (Leo, Harry and Nikki) really stand out.

After reading about it on UkGameshows.com, I watched the French version of Fort Boyard on TV5 Monde (I don't get France 2). It's a slightly different format from the UK one- being longer for a start (1 hour 50 minutes, with no ad-breaks). The most noticeable thing in this version was, unlike the UK version, Boyard is a nice guy. According to Wikipedia, he's only nasty in the UK versions. My French is only at GCSE Level though and it's poor in the speech department, so I can't say much else on what's said.

Watched March of the Penguins the other night. Good documentary, but I can't say it deserved an Oscar. I rarely agree with the Academy on pretty much anything (I throughly disliked Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, which won three Oscars).

What else have I been watching? CSI:Miami (the "most popular show on the planet") and The Bill, which has got distinctly better in recent months- it's also been ages since they killed any officers off, which has to be a good thing.

New Premiership season starts on Saturday. As a West Ham supporter, I'm hoping we do well (and we're predicted to do well, but predictions are just that- predictions). We've also got some UEFA Cup action to look forward to.

Middle East conflict is hopefully over. Both sides are claiming victory. It can't really honestly be said that either side have won on this. We all know who's lost- the Lebanese people.

Ramble 1

It's time for the start of what will be a fairly regular (i.e. whenever I feel like doing it) feature on this blog.

I'm going to take you on a gentle meander through a variety of topics of current interest. Please take your litter home with you.

There's an oldish saying- "500 channels and nothing to watch". It's distinctly true. Have you seen how much junk there is on satellite TV? I'm not going to name the channels in question (that would just give them free advertising), but it says something when the only thing remotely worth watching is Basil Brush on the CBBC Channel. Boom Boom indeed.

Speaking of the CBBC Channel, I watched the first episode of Raven: The Island, spin-off from, er, Raven. I'm not going to spoil it for you (I understand people don't like having it spoilt for them), save to say that there was a little too much exposition in it.

This leads me onto two more topics: monarchy and CGI. I'll start with monarchy. As some of you may know, the central character, the host per se, in Raven: The Island is a princess. Which got me thinking about monarchy in general. I'm mixed on monarchy. I don't like the idea of someone having a political position solely by virtue of who their parents were. However, I don't want to abolish the monarchy in the UK (mainly because I like the Queen. Charles on the other hand...). So I was distinctly mixed about this Princess character. She probably is a decent person, who just happens to be a princess. Then again I thought: just ignore, it's a TV programme.

Now onto CGI. Is it me, or is CGI really obvious these days, especially on TV? It was the case with R:TI. It's the same with Stargate. It doesn't look 'real' and the illusion is lost. Then again, I know a bit about TV production. By the way, I think model work on spaceships is better than CGI.

Joe Lieberman, as you know, narrowly lost the CT primary on Tuesday, over the Iraq War. I've taken the decision on my US Election prediction table to label this seat as an Independent seat, because Lieberman has effectively resigned as a Democrat by announcing his intention to run as an independent. I'm currently projecting an Independent Hold for Connecticut. My overall prediction for the Senate is:

Republicans 51
Democrats 47
Independents 2 (Saunders and Lieberman)

I haven't done the House or Governors yet. They'll be done gradually.

News today has been dominated by the terror arrests and the alert today. I'm not going to comment further until after any possible trials, save to say: Good job.

NEC Results

http://www.labour.org.uk/index.php?id=news2005&ux_news[id]=necresults&cHash=7e2b910037

So Walter Wolfgang is on the NEC. Not too surprising, I suppose. The Beeb are leading with that in their Politics section.

Perhaps we're moving to the left again. Let's hope we don't actually elect McDonnell as Leader.

The Middle East

Since the Palestinians elected a Hamas government, little has been going right in the Middle East.

Now, Israel is bombing targets in Lebanon, while Hizbollah is firing rockets into Israel. It's still being called a crisis. It's almost, if not quite, a war.

Here are some general thoughts of my own on this situation:

• Some of Israel's targetting does not seem to make logical sense- i.e. the international airport in Beirut.
• The Lebanese haven't been particuarly vocal on this situation. Probably don't want to be seen as supporting the terrorists. Why don't they do something about it?
• Just what do Hizbollah hope to achieve by randomly lobbing rockets at Israeli towns? It's just making the Israelis angrier.

I hope and pray we can find some solution to this before it's too late.

NEC Elections

As a card-carrying member of the Labour Party, I get to vote in NEC elections (I'll also get to vote for the next leader and deputy leader).

The NEC, for those of you not in the know is Labour's main decision making body. It's made up of (and I quote):

• The leader (Blair)
• The deputy leader (Prescott for the time being...)
• Treasurer
• 12 TU members
• 6 constituency party members (the ones I get to vote for)
• 3 government ministers
• 3 MPs or MEPs
• 2 Councillors
• 1 Young Labour Representative
• 1 "representative of the socialist societies"
• The leader of the European Parliament Labour Party (I don't know who that is).

So who's running for the NEC. Notable names are:

• Lorna Fitzsimmons- former MP for Rochdale until the students there voted her out.
• Helen Jackson: Former MP for Sheffield Hillsborough.
• Walter Wolfgang- yes, that Walter Wolfgang. The one who got thrown out of the Labour Conference for heckling and got us accused of being fascists.

There seem to be two distinct blocs:

• The Grassroots Alliance (Wolfgang and his crew- noticeably anti-Iraq war)
• The leadership's preferred candidates. I voted for most of these.

You can vote until 31 July.

A Year On

I don't need to remind everyone what today is the anniversary of.

A year ago, London had just won the Olympic Games. I was home for the day and nowhere near Central London. I had the day all planned out. Those plans were not to be.

I was making my way to a television to watch MacGyver, which was scheduled for 9am. The radio on and as I was walking, I heard that there had been an explosion at Liverpool Street station.

I switched over to the news channels and then cleared MacGyver off the planner. I wasn't in the mood to watch it.

It wasn't immediately clear these were actually explosions. The initial reports were saying power surges.

I spent much of the rest of the day reading the news sites and watching the news reports. I didn't feel in the mood to do much else. Al sent me an email checking whether I was OK. I really appreciated that.

Two weeks later, they tried to repeat their act of barbarism. Fortunately they failed.

On a couple of occasions afterwards, I had reason to travel through the section of the Tube where the Aldgate bombing took place. Whenever the train passed through that area, the lights flickered. It was not a pleasant reminder.

A year on and Sir Ian Blair says further attacks are 'almost inevitable'. I hope he's wrong. I fear he's right.

Yet another four years of hurt...

Before this competition started, I was predicting that England would go out in the quarter finals. Events have proved me right.

Rooney joins Southgate and Beckham in the "We went out thanks to you" club. I'm not sure if the stamp was intentional (only Wayne knows that), but it sure looked painful. Then again, he really shouldn't have shoved that Portugese player. May not have deserved a red, though, but that doesn't excuse it.

However much we've been practising penalties, it clearly hasn't been enough...

Sven's reign is over. Roll on McLaren.