27 January 2006

Advise and Consent

The big electoral highlight of 2006 has to be the US mid-terms. Will the Democrats regain the House and the Senate? Not unless they get their act together...

I'm going to go through each race and make my current predictions:

Arizona: GOP Hold
California: Only ever goes GOP in a landslide. DEM Hold.
Connecticut: Lieberman, unless he switches parties (and even then) is safe. DEM Hold
Delaware: DEM Hold
Florida: The Flowerpot Men (Bill and Ben) are up for election this year. It's going to be a close race in FL for Bill against Katherine Harris. I'm going to say DEM Hold.
Hawaii: DEM Hold.
Indiana: GOP Hold.
Maine: GOP Hold for the pro-choice Snowe (if she ever ran for President...)
Maryland: An open contest. I'll say DEM Hold.
Massachusetts: It's obvious, isn't it? DEM Hold.
Michigan: Tossup, but I'll say DEM Hold.
Minnesota: Dayton dropped out. This is a genuine tossup.
Mississipi: GOP Hold.
Missouri: DEM Gain
Montana: This state knows how to ticket-split. DEM Gain.
Nebraska: Ben is back. DEM Hold
Nevada: GOP Hold.
New Jersey: DEM Hold.
New Mexico: DEM Hold
New York: DEM Hold.
North Dakota: DEM Hold.
Ohio: DEM Gain.
Pennsylvania: DEM Gain.
Rhode Island: GOP Hold .
Tennessee: GOP Hold.
Texas: GOP Hold.
Utah: GOP Hold.
Vermont: IND Hold.
Virginia: GOP Hold.
Washington: DEM Hold.
West Virginia: DEM Hold.
Wisconsin: DEM Hold.
Wyoming: GOP Hold.

The Dems need to pick up 7 seats to control the Senate. My current prediction is for 4 gains.

Total Prediction:
Republican 50
Democrat 48
Independent 1
Tossup 1

1 comment:

Gregg said...

If the Dems make the gains you suggest, then they should have no trouble holding Minnesota, assuming they nominate Amy Klobuchar. They also stand a very good chance of gaining Tennessee and Nevada if they nominate the right candidates (Harold Ford and Oscar Goodman respectively).

My prediction:
Republican 48
Democrat 51
Independent 1