02 November 2008

The US Election

It's two days to go until the US Presidential Election, so I'd better post my thoughts here.

I think Obama, bar the polls being massively wrong (possible, but unlikely) or a game-changing event in the next two days (unlikely), is going to be the first black President of the United States. He'll win by a fair margin, at least 7 points in the popular vote and getting at least 300 electoral college votes.

McCain has ultimately suffered from being the candidate of a party that just got hit by a massive economic crisis, led by an unpopular President who has generally been rather incompetent. His own campaign hasn't really helped things (Palin should have been better prepared for her Veep candidacy role, for example).

While I would welcome an Obama victory, I cannot escape some nagging doubts about the man.

Firstly, his lack of experience- four years at national level. Kennedy had twelve, for comparative purposes.
Secondly, his willingness to distort McCain's voting record and views for his own campaign purposes, which does not seem to me to indicate a new style of politics.

Thirdly, some aspects of his policies concern me. I don't think a tax increase on the rich during a recession is a good idea. It should be pointed out that rich people's earnings don't all disappear into a Caymans bank account. They buy food, drink, cars- all money that keeps the economy going.

Fourthly, I have this worry that Obama's going to turn out to be a sort of Jimmy Carter Mark II. Russia, China, Iran or someone else might decide that he's weak and try something that will have nasty consequences on the local level at least.

I hope I'm wrong.

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