Coronavirus #26 - PTSD

This is our 'world war' - the impact on this country in terms of death is worse than the Blitz was. A lot of people have had loved ones taken before their time and much of the rest of us have endured months of separation, along with continuing uncertainty.

We are all going to need a lot of help to recovery psychologically from all this. Physical help will also be needed for all those with "long Covid" when it's seriously long-term as opposed to a few months of smell and taste problems.

I seriously do not want another lockdown as long as I live.

Coronavirus #25 - Ending restrictions

Many of us, after eleven months of restrictions on our daily lives due to this pandemic are getting impatient for an end to it all. I know I am; video meetings and home working have completely lost their appeal. Masks are unpleasant and rob people of their humanity; I appreciate their necessity and do wear one, but I can't say I like it.

Ultimately an end to restrictions should be governed by the science - and that's all the science. Not just epidemiology, but mental health, behavioural science and the economy. These necessary restrictions to protect the NHS and save lives should last as long as needed - and no longer.

We will likely not be able to eliminate Covid-19 entirely, so restrictions should be minimised once the most vulnerable are vaccinated. We should still keep a wary eye out for mutations, but the media should not inflate every mutation to being a vaccine beater when they almost certainly won't be. The newspapers have a lot to answer for their role in causing fear during this pandemic.

I look forward to this being a bad memory.

'The Investigation'

I can highly recommend this excellent dramatization of the investigation into the murder of Kim Wall, available in full on iPlayer. In particular, not featuring the murderer at all, even by name, deprives him of the oxygen of publicity and puts the spotlight where it firmly belongs, Kim Wall herself.

iPlayer link

It's well worth four and a half hours of your time; I would definitely want to see more of this.

Holocaust Memorial Day 2021

Today we remember the victims of all genocides. This includes the possible one against the Uighurs by China, where they are at least trying to destroy their culture and may be engaging in mass sterilisation. The international community needs to take action here.

Let us all work together for a world free of hate and prejudice.

Donald Trump's last trump

In just under three days' time, Donald Trump will cease to be President of the United States, after a term of utter failure. He has been even worse than feared for the country, with his mishandling of the pandemic resulting in the worse mass death in the US in a single year since its creation.

And he topped it off with basically inciting an insurrection by refusing to accept that he had lost and claiming voter fraud with no actual evidence. His second impeachment is right and he should be investigated criminally in connection with this.

Good riddance.

Coronavirus #24: Enter the vaccines

There are signs of us turning the tide in this pandemic; the recent data on numbers of new cases is suggesting that they are starting to drop and Tier 4/lockdown has been having an effect.

The reason that is arguably not having as much of an effect is that we're facing increasing non-compliance with restrictions from a significant minority of society, who are happily bending or outright breaking the rules. Some of this is down to outright exhaustion with all the rules that for many don't seem to make a huge amount of sense, arbitrary enforced and broken by the so-called great and good. For others, it's belief in dangerous conspiracy theories and misinformation, while others are just selfish.

Ultimately, the vaccine rollout is the best way of getting out of this situation; with around 2.5 million having had their first dose as of time of writing. We may well get a million jabs done this week and every one will help, especially if it does indeed stop transmission. We need to go even faster; three million a week should be our goal.

But we still have a difficult few weeks ahead of us - the NHS remains under great strain with around 35,000 hospitalised with Covid-19 and around 750 deaths a day.

So, people need to heed the restrictions and avoid unnecessary social contact, wear a mask etc. It will keep the numbers of people who get this before they can be vaccinated down and so save many more lives.

Doctor Who: "Revolution of the Daleks"

It's been ten months since the last televised episode of Doctor Who and a lot has happened since then. In fact, the controversial "The Timeless Children" aired on 1 March, a few weeks before things got really bad Covid-wise.

This episode was in fact filmed with Series 12 before lockdown, which means that the large crowd scenes filmed were done when we didn't have to worry about that sort of thing... However, aside from the editing, this also means that it reflects the quality and experience of that Series.

(Some spoilers ahead)

The Daleks have been heavily used throughout the show's history, arguably overused and it's getting somewhat difficult to find new stories to tell with them... so, credit to Chris Chibnall for something involving humans exploiting Dalek technology. In fact, it might have been even better without any actual Daleks. The actual Daleks were a bit on the dumb side, but frankly they generally are these days.

The story itself is a decent one, holding my attention for 70 minutes, although it isn't one that I'd likely return to again and again. 

Jodie Whittaker does a great job as the Doctor, engaging in a subtle and nuanced performance with some nice quirks of humour, like using Harry Potter as a bedtime story to herself. She's got no plans to go after Series 13 - at present - and I am glad she is sticking around.

Yaz is underwritten here and with the departure of her two other companions, hopefully she will have more to do here. Mandeep Gill does her best with the limited material and acts as a great foil to Captain Jack.

Graham and Ryan get a good send-off, with the possibility of Big Finish audios being set up. Bradley Walsh was a brilliant addition to the TARDIS in particular and I wish Tosin Cole well in his future endeavours.

Captain Jack is always worth the price of admission and John Barrowman has the part down pat - it's very much him playing himself - with some great call backs to past adventures. In fact, the whole alien prison sequence was great and could have easily justified an episode in its own right.

Robertson... wasn't hugely keen on having him back in the first place and wouldn't be overly keen on having him back for a second time, but he was suitably slimy. Got to hang some good lampshades on things too.

The self-serving government minister... well in the light of some stuff that's been going on, that seems pretty plausible.

Conclusion

By no means a classic, but definitely an enjoyable festive episode. Shame we're only getting eight episodes this year because of the pandemic...

8/10

Coronavirus #23 - Real pressure on the NHS

New records are now being recorded frequently for detected coronavirus cases in the UK and while we are possibly not at the real levels of infection that we had in the first wave, we are definitely heading that way. Even Tier 4 and the schools currently being closed - they should not go back at all on Monday - does not seem to be keeping R below one. A significant minority have stopped complying with the rules and the more infectious strain is making things harder.

The NHS is now under real pressure and it may well end up overloaded at least on a regional level. The only way we can reduce the hospitalisations and deaths now is to vaccinate as fast as possible.

Welcome to 2021

Well, that was one horror show of a year. No firm plans for 2021, but when we can start freely travelling again, I may well be doing some bits on train types I haven't been on before.

Also, expect a Doctor Who review at some point this week. Might as well...

I just want this pandemic to end... I think everyone does.

Stay safe; don't become a victim before your vaccine.

Christmas 2020

This will be the most difficult Christmas of many people's lives, unable to see friends and family because of restrictions deemed necessary for public health. Yet there is hope in the form of the vaccines.

Jesus didn't exactly have an easy life, becoming a refugee pretty much as soon as he was born. His time on Earth saw him face opposition from the authorities that led to his crucifixion, as well as the thousands of other difficulties that someone growing up in his time and place would face.

Talk to God about your worries at this time. He understands.

And things will get better. Jesus has promised that.

I wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

Coronavirus #22: Tier 4

Well, that's Christmas pretty much cancelled for much of the country. Frankly the hope shouldn't have been held out in the first place.

The new more infectious strain is concerning and we now need to vaccinate as fast as possible to get out of this.

John le Carré 1931-2020

The seminal spy novelist has died aged 89

One of my favourite authors, even if I didn't always agree with his politics, his spy novels created a tradition of gritty literature in their own right that stood as a proud counterpart to the likes of James Bond. He was a big influence in my own writing.

Rest in Peace.

Advent 2020

It's been a difficult year to put it mildly, but we have hope... from events 2000 years ago when Jesus Christ came into this world to save us sinners.

As a raised Christian, I have held the Christmas Story told many times and so a fresh take is always welcome. I have one to share with you.

The Hornchurch Passion Play, which I am involved in (it was due to be performed in April, but you know what has meant a delay until 2022), have posted a series of short monologues on their YouTube channel.

You can find it here:

Hornchurch Passion Play

I would highly recommend it.

Have a good Advent as possible in the circumstances.

Brexit deal

This weekend we may know if we'll get a Brexit deal or end up with a No Deal in January. Or we might not. Some compromises are going to need to be made on both sides.

Let's sort this out; the uncertainty is bad for everyone.

57 Years of Doctor Who

The show has not had a brilliant year. While Series 12 was pretty strong, the finale proved divisive. Series 13 has only just started production and will be just eight episodes because of the extra precautions necessitated by the pandemic. 

But the lockdown has not stopped some excellent additional material from coming out, although I admit I haven't really experienced much of it. I have too busy catching up on Big Finish audios, where the show's vast history is the source for excellent stories; Derek Jacobi's War Master in particular. 

We have a Christmas special, which will give us some escapism in what has been a difficult year to put it mildly. 

That's what Doctor Who has served to be for many people over the years. A break from an unpleasant world... and an inspiration for those seeking to create a better one.

Happy anniversary.

Donald gets Trumped - thoughts on the results of the US Presidential Election 2020

It's all over bar the shouting; Trump's lawsuits are going nowhere due to the fact that he can't actually provide any evidence for his wild and crazy claims of voter forms.

So, some thoughts on how this has all turned out.

1. It's a fairly standard election in some regards - unpopular incumbent doesn't get re-elected.
2. Of course, it wasn't in others. Being conducted in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic fundamentally changed the way people campaigned. Biden was essentially confined to his home, not holding the kinds of big rallies that Trump did (and which left a trail of virus cases in their wake). This arguably helped him as it limited the risk of him making damaging gaffes.
3. Trump getting Covid-19 was very much the "October surprise"; the way he handled it was shocking even for those used to him being awful. It's very likely the bad handling of this pandemic and the huge numbers of American deaths that result will be his biggest legacy; far more than getting America into any disastrous overseas wars, he has brought the equivalent of five Vietnams to American soil.
4. The record levels of mail-in ballots also led to a record turnout - this is likely to become routine for many voters as it is a much easier process than long queues at a polling station. It also was something a lot harder to intimidate against.
5. The Georgia Senate run-offs will be pretty close and who can turn out their voters better will ultimately win there.
6. 538 were correct in that Biden could survive a 2016-size polling error, which is basically what we got. It's looking like Republicans were under sampled, with a real reluctance to engage with pollsters by hardcore Trump supporters and Democrats being very keen to make their feelings known.
7. There were a fair number of ticket-splitters; those who voted Biden for President and Republican down-ballot. Biden outran lower-ballot Democrats across the board, essentially meaning that he had no coattails. With a 50-50 Senate the best possible outcome for them, Democrats have some cause for concern.
8. Taking the "Latino vote" for granted - indeed assuming there is a monolithic Latino vote in the first place - was a big mistake for the Democrats and could have cost them a closer election. Texas is now a swing state, but it's unlikely to flip unless there is a seriously popular Democrat running.
9. "Law and order" remains a strong driver of Republican turnout; riots scare voters.
10. Biden is very likely a one-term President due to his age. Kamala Harris has four years to work on her overall public image as Vice President if she wants a chance at the top job come 2024.
11. Trump will probably try to run in 2024 if he is capable of doing so; even being imprisoned doesn't legally stop you as Eugene Debs demonstrated in 1920.
12. Biden is going to need a lot of political skill to get any major policies passed in a divided Congress; he arguably has it.

It's going to be somewhat of a return to normality. Only somewhat though.

Coronavirus #21 - The end of the beginning

We have a vaccine. In fact, we are likely to have more than one, as we're waiting for the Moderna and AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccines to report back, which they should do in the next week or two.

The main challenge now will the logistics of rolling out the vaccine to millions. This will take a couple of months and the winter will be challenging.

This why it is important to keep wearing a mask and doing the other things. Don't be the last person to die in this war.

Disease and war - Remembrance 2020

This year's commemorations of the end of the First World War and our annual remembrance of those who died for the peace and freedom we enjoy today are rather different. For one thing, we're not exactly enjoying a great deal of freedom at the moment, with heavy restrictions on our lives to fight the Covid-19 pandemic.

The very existence of that pandemic should serve as a reminder at this time that disease is very much a part of war. The 1918-20 pandemic came about at the tail end of the First World War, with efforts to fight it hindered by the extensive censorship imposed by the belligerent nations. The unsanitary conditions of the frontlines helped spread the sickness at a time when many had weakened immune systems from wartime deprivations.

Remember that warfare helps spread disease by the destruction of facilities for sanitation. Until the World Wars, you were far more likely to die of disease than actual violence. Even the World Wars had widespread epidemics, most notably of typhus in the Nazi concentration camps. Infected wounds could kill you just as surely as the wounds themselves, especially if you had no access to antibiotics. Cholera outbreaks remain common in wars today, such as in Yemen.

So, at this time, remember those who fell not just from gunfire, but germs. And work for a more peaceful world, because that will be a healthier world. 

That's President-elect Sleepy Joe to you

When the polls closed on Tuesday and we saw the initial swings in the suburbs of Florida, it looked good for Joe Biden. Then Miami-Dade went heavily for Trump and people started to get rather nervous. The 'red mirage' turned out to be real... and it slowly dissipated.

Very slowly. It has taken nearly four days for the winner to hit 270 electoral college votes, due to the sheer number of mail ballots and several states banning them being processed until the polls closed. This process needs to be very much reformed.

Donald Trump, demonstrating that just when you think he can't go any lower he does it anyway, is completely denying reality, making spurious allegations of fraud with no evidence, as is his campaign. This sort of stuff is dangerous and it is fortunate with all the weapons being carried around that no-one has yet been killed.

President-elect Biden will have several tough challenges on his plate... including dealing with the Trump cultists.

US Election Prediction for 2020

 OK, here's my prediction for Tuesday. I may be wrong on some or all of these.

• Biden will win the popular vote by 5 to 10 percentage points, probably on the higher end of that range.
• It will be clear, but not 100% confirmed, who has won on the night.
• Biden will get 351 Electoral Votes, picking up Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (My full predictions can be found here)
• He will just miss out on Ohio and Texas. 
• Turnout will be at its highest since universal suffrage.
• The Democrats will win both Houses of Congress.
• Trump will privately concede, but publicly not do so.
• Expect multiple criminal investigations into Trump as soon as he leaves office.
• A lot of Republicans will not take this lying down and the next four years could be pretty tense.