It looks like Ukraine is facing a very bad choice in the next week or two. Either accepting a humiliating peace deal or face the loss of US support at a time where it can ill-afford such loss.
It is clear to me that Ukraine is nowhere near being able to expel Russian forces from its territory. It can throw as many Flamingo missiles at oil refineries as it likes, but that is not going to make Russia collapse. A concerted campaign of sanctions and economic isolation would be more likely to do so, but like a game of Jenga, you cannot predict with certainty when the tower is going to collapse.
Accepting the deal would likely just be an armistice for a few years until Russia can reconstitute then attack again on some dubious pretext. But continuing to fight risks a Ukrainian collapse.
Europe is not going to commit actual ground troops to liberate Ukraine. It is too reliant on Russian gas.
There is a danger of pride overcoming common sense - but it might not be common sense. I wouldn't like to make this decision anymore than Zelenskyy.
Let's hope he makes the right one.
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