01 June 2017

General Election prediction

I think that the Conservatives will win an overall majority of between 25 and 50 seats with around an eight point popular vote lead, say 44-36. A lot of marginal seats will change hands in both directions and there will be much variation in swing levels. 

May will remain Prime Minister, Corbyn will remain Labour leader but neither will fight the 2022 election. 

I could of course be very wrong on this. 

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