17 April 2010

Well, there goes my prediction model...

I've been doing a spreadsheet predicting the results of every seat in the upcoming election. The basic model assumed a swing from Labour to the Tories of about 6%, bigger in the marginals.

Looks like I might have to rip up my prediction if the polls held.

Clegg won that debate on Thursday. Cameron came second and Brown third, but neither did too badly. The thing is, ten million people at least have now had an exposure to Clegg they wouldn't otherwise have had.

The large boost to the Lib Dems in the polls is going to put a lot of attention on them now- especially from the more right-wing tabloids who want a Tory government.

However, I think at least some of this increase in support, possibly half, will hold.

It's going to be a very interesting May.

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