Assisted Dying Bill

The House of Commons is voting tomorrow on legalising assisted dying for the first time since 2015; it will be an unwhipped vote with MPs free to vote their conscience.

The details on the proposal are here.

I understand the desire of people to end their suffering and go out on their own terms, but it would be very hard to detect whether someone had been pressured or coerced to take the life-ending medication.

The restrictions are very tight; how many people would be in a position to actually go through this? Some terminal illnesses rob you of the ability to know what day it is, at which point you're not going to be able to have the presence of mind to take your own life. Others will be different.

In any event, I am personally not comfortable with suicide or helping someone to kill themselves. I am not sure I want the High Court deciding on these cases either. This is not a case where someone is brain-dead; they are still actively living human beings.

I would personally vote No on this, but I understand those who would support it. I trust if this were to pass, it would not be a slippery slope.

Sixty-One Years of 'Doctor Who'

Watched most of the Tales from the TARDIS version of "The Time Meddler" today. It's not bad, although very much of its time in terms of pacing, fight scenes etc. The Doctor/Monk stuff is fun though.

The show is in interesting place now; the Disney-funded "Season 2" is to air next year. There has been no official greenlight for a third season although scripts are being written for it. A lot will depend on the performance of Season 2 outside the UK and Ireland; a bad performance and Disney may well end up pulling the financial plug, which would put the show in serious trouble.

Also, we might end up going to a Sixteenth Doctor in 2026, depending on Ncuti Gatwa's feelings about continuing with the character; pretty much all of the leads bar one since 2005 have done three seasons then out.

Finally, it would be nice to have more than eight episodes in a run. Ten at least, please.

So, happy anniversary to the Doctor and long may it continue in some form!

Remembrance 2024

The events of the last year, particularly the last week, make it clear that the struggle against fascism and other forms of intolerance did not end in 1945. There is a distinct possibility people will be called upon to defend freedom again at some point in my lifetime - and with nuclear weapons a thing, there might end up not being anything else but freedom.

I wonder what the veterans who sleep in Flanders Fields are making of all of this.

The return of Donald Trump

Well, he's back for another four years. Unless he drops dead first, which is possible. I want to wait for all the final numbers to come in, but my initial thought is that there is a danger of overcomplicating this election.

"It's the economy, stupid" goes a long way to explaining the results, frankly.

As for Trump, we're about to see how strongly the guardrails cope with his crazy ideas.

US Presidential Election 2024 Prediction

We are nearing the end of an election campaign even nastier than the last one. Donald Trump and his Republicans have engaged in the sort of rhetoric that the Nazis used and they're increasingly not able to hide it.

Kamala Harris, thrust into the nomination after the Biden campaign collapsed, has done a remarkable job in the circumstances, although admittedly many are not entirely happy about her lack of a clear stance on Gaza. She might be clearer on that once election is secured.

The election looks very close, but one of course must remember a little thing called margin of error; a blowout in the swing states is entirely possible with a normal polling error.

The Trump campaign seems to be having some major issues with its ground game; they also seem to be setting the "information environment" (thank you Institute for the Study of War for that) to claim election fraud after any loss. The insult comic at the Madison Square Garden rally seems to have invoked real fury among Puerto Ricans.

Harris has an advantage in enthusiasm, particularly among women and older voters. The Democrats are seem to be at just the right level of confidence to avoid complacency.

So, here is how I think it is going to go:

Prediction Map

• Harris wins the popular vote by two to three points.
• Harris wins six of the seven swing states, coming close in North Carolina. 303 electoral votes will be three fewer than Joe Biden got in 2020.
• With the rise of early voting on both sides, the 'red mirage' will be less prominent than 2020, but still there nonetheless.
• The Democrats will take the House, the Republicans the Senate. This will mean more Congressional gridlock.
• Trump will "declare victory" on Wednesday morning (UK time) and scream fraud later.
• The National Guard are going to be needed at some point, sadly.

But of course, I could be wrong and it's going to be a long couple of days, I would say.