11 November 2024

Remembrance 2024

The events of the last year, particularly the last week, make it clear that the struggle against fascism and other forms of intolerance did not end in 1945. There is a distinct possibility people will be called upon to defend freedom again at some point in my lifetime - and with nuclear weapons a thing, there might end up not being anything else but freedom.

I wonder what the veterans who sleep in Flanders Fields are making of all of this.

06 November 2024

The return of Donald Trump

Well, he's back for another four years. Unless he drops dead first, which is possible. I want to wait for all the final numbers to come in, but my initial thought is that there is a danger of overcomplicating this election.

"It's the economy, stupid" goes a long way to explaining the results, frankly.

As for Trump, we're about to see how strongly the guardrails cope with his crazy ideas.

02 November 2024

US Presidential Election 2024 Prediction

We are nearing the end of an election campaign even nastier than the last one. Donald Trump and his Republicans have engaged in the sort of rhetoric that the Nazis used and they're increasingly not able to hide it.

Kamala Harris, thrust into the nomination after the Biden campaign collapsed, has done a remarkable job in the circumstances, although admittedly many are not entirely happy about her lack of a clear stance on Gaza. She might be clearer on that once election is secured.

The election looks very close, but one of course must remember a little thing called margin of error; a blowout in the swing states is entirely possible with a normal polling error.

The Trump campaign seems to be having some major issues with its ground game; they also seem to be setting the "information environment" (thank you Institute for the Study of War for that) to claim election fraud after any loss. The insult comic at the Madison Square Garden rally seems to have invoked real fury among Puerto Ricans.

Harris has an advantage in enthusiasm, particularly among women and older voters. The Democrats are seem to be at just the right level of confidence to avoid complacency.

So, here is how I think it is going to go:

Prediction Map

  • Harris wins the popular vote by two to three points.
  • Harris wins six of the seven swing states, coming close in North Carolina. 303 electoral votes will be three fewer than Joe Biden got in 2020.
  • With the rise of early voting on both sides, the 'red mirage' will be less prominent than 2020, but still there nonetheless.
  • The Democrats will take the House, the Republicans the Senate. This will mean more Congressional gridlock.
  • Trump will "declare victory" on Wednesday morning (UK time) and scream fraud later.
  • The National Guard are going to be needed at some point, sadly.
But of course, I could be wrong and it's going to be a long couple of days, I would say.